There are three titles on the line at this Saturday’s UFC 200. We’ve previewed the main event, Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier, in a separate article, so now we’re focusing on the other two championship fights. First up is the interim featherweight championship between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar, followed by Miesha Tate’s first title defense against Amanda Nunes.
Bet on UFC 197 odds at BookMaker.eu
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated on a daily basis. The lines listed here are subject to change.
Featherweight Championship
Frankie Edgar -115
Jose Aldo -105
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -120, under +100
ODDS ANALYSIS
The pair met before at UFC 156 in February 2013, and the odds closed with Edgar at +165 and Aldo at -165. A lot has changed since then -- so much that Edgar is the slight favorite three years later at -115. With Aldo at -105, this is about as close to a pick’em as you can get.
THE SMART PLAYS
This is a tough call. On one hand, Edgar has never looked better -- and that’s saying something considering that he’s a former lightweight champion. His five fight winning streak includes victories over contenders like Charles Oliveira, Cubs Swanson and Chad Mendes. The win over Mendes was particularly impressive, as he knocked out the two-time title challenger in the first round.
Edgar has the sort of all around skill-set, with superb movement and world-class wrestling, that makes him a threat against any fighter in all phases of MMA. The problem here is that he was unable to impose his wrestling against Aldo in their first match, relegating him to a boxing match against one of the best Muay Thai stylists in the game.
While Frankie is an excellent boxer, he needs to be able to at least threaten Aldo with takedowns. I’m not so sure that he can. Aldo is an elite athlete, and he’s still just 30 years old. In a pure kickboxing match, I’d have to lean towards Aldo’s speed and power.
In regards to the over/under, the over at -120 is a solid value. Aside from his knockout loss to McGregor, Aldo has gone to the final bell in three of his past four fights. Had the Korean Zombie not dislocated his shoulder, the Brazilian would likely have been four of four in going to decision.
UFC ODDS: Jose Aldo UD Frankie Edgar
Women’s Bantamweight Champions
Amanda Nunes +230
Miesha Tate -275
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -225, under +190
ODDS ANALYSIS
Tate is nearly a 3-1 favorite at -275. However, the last two title fights in the division featured big upsets. One, of course, was Holly Holm dethroning Ronda Rousey as a +700 underdog. Then Tate upset Holm as the +240 underdog. Let’s just say that Nunes is a very real threat at +230.
THE SMART PLAYS
The biggest storyline here is whether Nunes’ cardio can hold up in a five round fight. Tate’s endless gas tank is one of her biggest strengths. On top of that, Miesha has evolved into a comeback queen, pulling out victories in the final round, like the female version of Robbie Lawler.
Another big question is if Nunes can fend off Tate’s wrestling. Nunes is one of the best women’s Muay Thai practitioners in the business, and is unquestionably the better striker of the two. Again, this all ties back to the Brazilian’s cardio. Nunes is athletic enough to fight off Tate’s takedowns when she’s fresh, but if she tires early she’ll spend a lot of time on her back.
While I expect Tate to eat a few big shots, it’s tough to see Nunes holding her off and scoring enough points to win. In 23 fights, Tate has only been finished by punches twice, and she’s proven herself to be extremely durable.
The over/under is surprisingly low at 1.5 rounds, with the over the far more expensive play at -225. The under, at +190, represents an extremely small window to finish, although Nunes is known for scoring early stoppages.
UFC ODDS: Miesha Tate TKO Nunes, Round 4
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 90 takes place on July 7 on Fight Pass, The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale takes place on July 8 on FS1, and UFC 200 takes place on July 9 on pay-per-view.
