In a matchup between struggling former welterweight contenders, Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger will square off in an expected barnburner at this Saturday’s UFC 201.
It’s a bout that should appeal to casual and hardcore fans alike, as both men have crowd-pleasing styles and are known commodities in the division.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Matt Brown -280
Jake Ellenberger +230
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +110, under -130
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated on a daily basis. The odds listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
While both men haven’t been winning much lately, Ellenberger’s recent body of work suggests that he is on a steeper decline than Brown. Oddsmakers have definitely taken notice, as “The Juggernaut” is a clear underdog going into the bout. The over/under at 1.5 rounds is understandable, given the violent nature of the fighters.
FIGHT PREVIEW
Brown is a high-volume pressure fighter, pushing forward at all costs to deliver a stream of punch-kick-elbow combinations. His fight against Erick Silva is by far the best example of the all-out war he likes to engage in, as Brown literally made the Brazilian crumble after dozens of blows against the fence. His aggressiveness invites opponents into wild exchanges, where Brown will usually swallow them up.
It’s not like Brown is a brawler either -- he’s got solid striking mechanics that allow him to throw an ungodly amount of strikes without draining his gas tank. He is at his best when he can back opponents into the cage, and loves to operate out of the classic Thai plum.
Where Brown needs work is his defensive wrestling. Both Demian Maia and Johny Hendricks -- two elite wrestlers -- were able to take him down and control him. Although he stays extremely active from the bottom, he’s not a particularly dangerous submission threat. But in a standup battle, Brown can hold his own against most anyone.
Ellenberger has lost five of his past six fights, although every one of those defeats came against top contenders. Still, it’s hard to get past the fact that he didn’t look very competitive in any of them. Once a perennial top-10 fighter, “The Juggernaut” is now more of a gatekeeper -- a well-respected name, but past his prime.
Although he has a background in wrestling, it was Ellenberger’s punching power that fueled his ascent a few years ago. But it’s been awhile since he’s knocked anyone out. Even worse, his durable chin has shown signs of cracks, as Stephen Thompson laid him out cold in July 2015. While Brown isn’t a one-punch knockout artist, he can accumulate damage frighteningly fast.
BREAKDOWN AND PREDICTION
Ellenberger might not be in danger of getting a pink slip just yet, but he has to know that he’s standing on thinning ice. I expect The Juggernaut to return to his wrestling roots and try and bring Brown in effort to score points through top control. I like the value you can get on the over here, as an early finish doesn’t seem likely.
However, Ellenberger’s wrestling is not on the same level as somebody like Hendricks. Brown should be able to separate and tee off, and Jake’s tendency to fight emotional could hurt him as the hits pile up. This is Brown’s fight to lose, and he should be able to notch a UD victory.
UFC odds: Brown UD Ellenberger
HOW TO BET
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