The UFC’s most exciting champion, Robbie Lawler, will defend his title this Saturday against the No. 3 ranked Tyron Woodley -- easily the most athletic challenger of “Ruthless’” title reign. In late 2015, Lawler earned Fight of the Year honors for his epic war with Rory MacDonald. He outdid himself in his very next fight against Carlos Condit, putting on an early favorite for the 2016 honors in January. Can he go three for three?
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Robbie Lawler -223
Tyron Woodley +193
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -150, under +130
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Oddsmakers are finally giving Lawler some much due respect. Currently, he’s more than a 2-1 favorite at -223. In his first title defense against MacDonald, Robbie was a +150 underdog. His fight against Condit yielded nearly pick-em odds at -107. Woodley is a +193 underdog, although I expect his line to get more expensive closer to fight night. The over/under splits the fight down the middle at 2.5 rounds, and the over is correctly the more expensive bet as Lawler’s fights usually go to decision.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
While Lawler earned his “Ruthless” moniker with memorable brawls, he is very different fighter than the one that engaged in all-or-nothing firefights years ago. He’s still got those instincts in him, but he is a much more evolved striker ever since rejoining the UFC a few years ago.
At 34, he still retains the most fearsome one-punch knockout power in the division, and rarely does an opponent emerge from a fight with him with his face unblemished. In Strikeforce, Lawler would rely far too often on his power, wildly swinging hooks in hopes of starting a brawl. Nowadays, he’ll patiently pick challengers apart with a vicious jab, picking his spots to unleash furious combinations.
Although Lawler has a good wrestling background, he rarely uses it offensively anymore. In fact, his whole grappling game revolves around keeping the fight standing. He possesses one of the best sprawls on the roster, and when he does get taken down Lawler has excellent hips that allow him to escape and get back to his feet.
Woodley is a gifted athlete, blessed with unnatural explosiveness and ridiculous power. Despite his gifts, he can be an inconsistent fighter. Many of his fights are plagued with prolonged stretches of minimal activity, which is frustrating consider how fast he can pile up damage. When he’s in rhythm, he’s pumping his jab and low kicks to time a lights-out overhand right.
While T-Wood may not be as good a striker as Lawler, he is arguably the more well-rounded fighter. His athleticism allows him to land powerful takedowns, and Woodley has a wrestling base that lets him hold down opponents for long stretches. In the clinch, his natural strength allows him to be the guy pushing fighters into the fence, where he’ll throw strong knees and elbows.
PREDICTION
There are two major factors to consider, and they both concern Woodley. The first is that T-Wood is the noticeably faster fighter. It’ll be extremely tough for Lawler to stalk him, and Woodley should be able to score points without taking too much damage. But the second factor is his cardio -- Woodley has noticeably gassed in three-round fights.
We all know that Lawler is a fighter that only gets stronger the longer a fight goes on. If Woodley shows any sign of exhaustion in the championship rounds, getting tuned up by the comeback king is inevitable. However, I expect Woodley to play it smart and use his explosiveness to steal rounds, and I’m calling an upset for the athletic middleweight.
UFC odds: Woodley UD Lawler
HOW TO BET
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