Two of the UFC’s biggest stars will collide this Saturday when featherweight champion Conor McGregor meets Stockton native Nate Diaz in highly anticipated rematch. The pair will headline an event that projects to be one of the highest selling pay-per-views in the promotion’s history. Although Diaz was able to submit McGregor in their first scrap, the American comes into the bout as a betting underdog.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Conor McGregor -130
Nate Diaz +110
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +115, under -135
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
A winning $100 bet on Diaz would pay out $110, while you’d need to bet $130 on McGregor to win $100. The over/under splits the five-rounder in half at 2.5 rounds, with the under being the more expensive play at -135. While it might be surprising that Diaz is an underdog, McGregor has throngs of loyal supporters who historically back him in droves. Oddsmakers are always trying to even out the action, so it makes sense that McGregor is the slight chalk here.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
There are a couple key reasons why Conor lost to Diaz at UFC 196. Several of these have to do with the fact that “Notorious” was simply unprepared for fighting at 170. In his own words, McGregor “ate his way up to the weight,” happily scarfing down giant meals on UFC Embedded. That’s not to say he was eating a bunch of junk -- but he probably wasn’t the smartest about his nutrition either.
McGregor also had too much faith in his punching power, which didn’t translate against a bigger man. He entered the bout having knocked out seven of his past eight opponents, and was coming off a 13-second one-punch KO of Jose Aldo. So naturally, the SBG Ireland product came out swinging, busting Nate up with big shots -- but expending a ton of energy to do so.
When Nate didn’t go down, McGregor was left without a plan B. In the post-fight presser, he admitted overlooking Diaz, stating that “normally featherweights crumble under those shots.”
We know what Nate is at this point. He’s a supremely conditioned, high-level boxer with elite jiu-jitsu skills. Diaz is going to pepper opponents with punches and set a pace that few can hope to match. On the ground, he’s a lethal grappling artist who uses his lanky limbs to trap opponents with a variety of subs.
The question is whether McGregor can evolve, or at least stick to a proven game plan. If he goes out there trying to wing it against Diaz -- whose possesses unnatural durability and stamina -- it’s doubtful he can avenge his loss. But if the Dublin native relentlessly attack the lead leg, or uses his speed to pulls the Josh Thomson stick-and-move strategy, than he’s got a clear path to victory.
But can McGregor swallow his pride? Will he sacrifice his crowdpleasing, headhunting style for a more measured approach? Can he hold back the desire to knock Nate out -- an almost impossible task? Those are the million dollar questions.
THE SMART PLAYS
Nate Diaz should not be the underdog. He beat McGregor on just 11 days notice and this time will have the benefit of a full training camp. In press conferences, Diaz looks about 25 pounds heavier than the featherweight champ, and stands half a head taller. What’s more, Diaz owns the grappling advantage by a margin the size of the Grand Canyon. At +110, Stockton’s finest is a damn steal.
UFC odds: Diaz SUB McGregor, Round 4
HOW TO BET
With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 202 takes place on August 20, 2016 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will air on pay-per-view starting 9 p.m. ET following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
