Stipe Miocic will make his first title defense in his hometown of Cleveland, in the same arena where Lebron James and the Cavaliers brought home the city’s first sports title in decades.
But he’ll need more than a frenzied crowd behind him, because challenging the part-time firefighter will be an elite kickboxer in Alistair Overeem.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Alistair Overeem +115
Stipe Miocic -135
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -105, under -115
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Overeem is a slight underdog at +115, with Miocic at -135. You’ll rarely see lopsided money lines in a heavyweight title fight -- it’s hard to dominate a division when 250-pounders are throwing bombs in four-ounce gloves. That’s also why the over/under is usually at the lowest possible total: 1.5 rounds, like it is here.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
On paper, this is a matchup that pits Miocic’s Golden Gloves boxing experience against Overeem’s superb kickboxing. Miocic has scored knockouts in his past three fights, including a vicious beatdown of the famously durable Mark Hunt. Overeem has stopped three of his past four opponents with strikes as well.
Both men have the type of explosive power that can quickly put out the lights, and they dynamic, sophisticated standup games. Overeem possesses a deeper vocabulary of striking, mixing in brutal knees and kicks with his fists. He is particularly lethal in the clinch, where his knees can break opponents quickly.
But Overeem’s faulty chin puts him on equal footing with almost every other striker in the division. He was laying the smack down on Antonio Silva and Travis Browne before both men threw one well-timed strike that changed the course of those fights. And Miocic is a quick, powerful striker who just laid out Fabricio Werdum.
Another key question is whether Miocic will opt to utilize his wrestling. A former NCAA D1 wrestler, Miocic is at his best when he’s scoring takedowns in tandem with his punching combinations. Although the Dutchman has good takedown defense and an underrated submission game, his cardio is a question mark -- and one of the best ways to drain the gas tank is to force a fighter to defend.
THE SMART PLAYS
I favor Miocic’s well-rounded skillset to Overeem’s explosive styles. But this is a matchup where whoever lands the first clean shot will probably have his hand raised. Instead of picking a winner, consider the over on 1.5 rounds at -135. Miocic is a cerebral fighter who knows that his chances of success rises with each passing round. And ever since Overeem joined Jackson-Wink, he’s been a much more guarded kickboxer, protecting his chin and electing to counter rather than bullying. This fight will likely go into a third frame.
UFC odds: Miocic TKO Overeem, Round 3
HOW TO BET
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