Two of the middleweight division’s most dangerous strikers will meet in the co-main event of this Saturday’s UFC 204. Former light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort, who has been a middleweight, will meet former Dream champion Gegard Mousasi, who has put together consecutive wins to rise back into title contention. It should an exciting matchup punctuated with elite striking. Let’s break down your betting options.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Gegard Mousasi - 350
Vitor Belfort +260
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +100, under -130
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was written.
Odds Analysis
Mousasi is a 3.5-1 favorite, with a costly money line of -350. Belfort is currently a clear underdog at +260, meaning a winning $100 bet would net you $260. The over/under for this three-rounder is set at the lowest total of 1.5 rounds, with the under being the slightly more expensive play. Belfort’s skills seem to be rapidly diminishing in the post-TRT era, and oddsmakers are setting the lines accordingly.
Why You Should Watch
When it comes to pure hand speed, Belfort has long been considered one of the most dangerous strikers in all of MMA. Two decades of cagefighting have produced one of the most exciting highlight reels of all time - mostly punctuated by furious swarms that have left opponents fractured and bloody.
In recent years, he’s seamlessly integrated a lethal kicking game to his arsenal. His spinning heel kick knockout of former champion Luke Rockhold was a contender for knockout of the year, and one fight later he cracked the famously durable Dan Henderson with a fight-ending head kick.
Belfort is infamously known for his first-round blitzes, and the furious power of his early storms could likely power a city block for a week. It’s never a good idea to stand with Vitor in the first, but even if when an opponent gets him to the ground they’d be dealing with a legitimate high level black belt.
The matchup with Mousasi pits Belfort’s savage Muay Thai against highly technical kickboxing. “The Dreamcatcher” has always been one of the most patient, refined strikers in the game - he’ll happily jab fighters to death if that’s what’s working.
While he doesn’t really have single killshot power, Mousasi’s technical acumen makes him extremely dangerous on the feet. One does not accrue 20 KOs in 39 career victories without the ability to seriously hurt others. How Mousasi - a dangerous counterstriker - will defend against Belfort’s hands is a compelling storyline of its own.
How You Should Bet
The problem with Belfort is that he is a one-round fighter. At 39 years old, he clearly doesn’t have the gas tank to go deep with anyone, and is usually fatigued by the second round. That is a huge weakness against a cerebral fighter like Mousasi, who can pick apart tired opponents with ease.
The smartest play here is the even money you get on the over. Mousasi is one of the most patient fighters on the roster, so he’ll probably take a bit of time to break down Belfort. The pick is Mousasi to win in round three.
UFC odds: Mousasi SUB Belfort, R3
How to Bet
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 204 takes place on Saturday, October 8, 2016 at the Manchester Arena in Manchester, England. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the FOX Sports 1 prelims.
