UFC 205 takes place on Saturday, November 12, 2016 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view following the FS1 prelims. Featherweight champion Conor McGregor will meet lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez in the main event. Sign into BookMaker.eu to bet on UFC 205 odds now.
Saying that this Saturday’s UFC 205 is the best card in the promotion’s history is a massive understatement. It takes place at Madison Square Garden, the world’s most famous fight venue, has three title fights, the UFC’s biggest superstar, and it took years for the UFC to get sanctioned in New York.
We’ve gone through detailed fight previews of the biggest fights all week, so today we’re focusing on quick picks. This isn’t a prediction of who will win, but rather a selection of the best value bets in each matchup.
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Main Event
Lightweight Championship
Conor McGregor -150
Eddie Alvarez +130
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -170, under +145
Betting Values
You could go either way here. Alvarez has a history of coming through as an underdog, but it’s hard to believe this fight goes five full rounds without the lightweight champ getting tagged a few times by the Irishman’s deadly left cross. And we’ve all seen how much damage that just one of those shots can do.
At -150, McGregor is a solid value - I’m surprised that he’s not near a 2-1 favorite coming into this bout. Alvarez is going to have a lot of problems negating a five-inch reach disadvantage and doesn’t have the overpowering wrestling to hold Mystic Mac down.
UFC odds pick: McGregor to win at -150
Co-Main Event
Welterweight Championship
Stephen Thompson -200
Tyron Woodley +170
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +115
Betting Values
Thompson has taken the 170-pound class by storm with flashy kickboxing and impressive wins over Johny Hendricks and Rory MacDonald. He’s looked so good that he’s a -200 favorite despite the fact that he’s the challenger to champion Tyron Woodley.
While I love watching “Wonderboy” light dudes up with his feet, Woodley is the most explosive athlete in the division. Plus, he’s got a D1 wrestling background that could expose Thompson’s inexperience in a key MMA phase. I’m not saying that Woodley is a sure bet to win, but his value at +170 is tempting in terms of UFC betting.
UFC odds pick: Woodley to win at +170
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -375
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +305
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -185, under +155
Betting Values
Thus far, Claudia Gadelha is the only person that has given Jedrzejczyk serious trouble inside the octagon. The Brazilian used her immense strength and athleticism to stifle the Joanna’s offense and control her on the mat. Karolina Kowalkiewicz has none of those traits. In fact, she’s a kickboxer who happens to be challenging one of the best Muay Thai practitioners in all the UFC.
Joanna Champion to win at -375 is the safest best on the main card. But that money line is a bit tough to swallow. Instead, try your hand at the under at +155. While J-Check doesn’t have one-punch knockout power, the gap in technique and athleticism between the two is massive. It’s not hard to see Joanna carving up Kowalkiewicz and ending it with a flurry.
UFC odds pick: Under 4.5 rounds at +155
Middleweight
Chris Weidman -165
Yoel Romero +140
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -210, under +175
Betting Values
Weidman and Romero will be fighting for the first time in nearly a year - Romero due to a PEDs suspension and Weidman due to a slew of injuries. Both are decorated wrestlers, with Weidman a three-time D1 All-American and Romero an Olympic medalist for Cuba. Each has evolved into dangerous standup fighters.
This is an extremely tough fight to call as either man has the ability to end the fight quickly. But I’d fade Romero a bit as he has trouble conserving energy over three rounds. I can’t remember the last time he looked fresh in a third round. Weidman is far better conditioned, and should be able to wear Romero down with boxing and clinches.
UFC odds pick: Weidman to win at -165
Welterweights
Donald Cerrone -170
Kelvin Gastelum +140
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -160, under +140
Betting Values
“Cowboy” has looked like a stud since moving up to 170 as a lightweight contender, with back-to-back knockouts of Patrick Cote and Rick Story. Those guys are legitimate 170 pounders. So how will he fare against a top-5 welterweight? Gastelum is a brute, with power, athleticism and wrestling - Cerrone has got a tough road ahead.
I thought that Story’s wrestling would make the difference against Cerrone, and I was wrong. But Gastelum is stronger, faster and more athletic and should be able to close the gap and take this fight to the ground, where he will have a marked strength advantage. At +140, Gastelum offers a solid payout.
UFC odds pick: Gastelum to win at +140
Women’s Bantamweights
Miesha Tate -180
Raquel Pennington +150
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -190, under +165
Betting Values
Tate gets a bounceback fight after losing her title in a crushing loss to Amanda Nunes. But Pennington is far from a pushover, coming into the bout on the strength of three straight wins. But she’s not the type of quick, athletic fighter that’s given Tate trouble in the past.
Miesha’s calling card is her wrestling and toughness, as she’s made multiple last-minute comebacks throughout her career. She should be able to take down Pennington and control her en route to a decision. In terms of UFC betting, Both Tate to win and the over on 2.5 rounds are safe plays here, though I’d probably stick with the over.
UFC odds pick: Over on 2.5 rounds at -190
How to Bet
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC 205 takes place on Saturday, November 12, 2016 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view following the FS1 prelims.
