At UFC Fight Night 82 this past February, a flashy-yet-unheralded kickboxer by the name of Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson squared off against former welterweight champion and then top-3 ranked Johny Hendricks. Most experts picked Hendricks to win, citing Wonderboy’s weakness in wrestling as the main factor. What happened next rocked the welterweight division entirely.
Thompson destroyed Hendricks in one round. Nobody had beaten “Bigg Rigg” like that. And he did it in a way that made you wonder if Wonderboy’s training routine was simply imitating what he saw in Jet Li movies. Question mark kicks, side kicks, jump kicks all landed with stunning, deadly accuracy. Hendricks, a man who many feel beat the legendary GSP, looked like an amateur.
He was so good, that after the fight Michael Bisping, who had been assigned to talking head duties, proclaimed that Thompson would be the champion before the year’s end. Wonderboy now has a chance to fulfill the prophecy. But it won’t come easy, as Woodley just might be the most underrated champ in the UFC.
Let’s take a look at your betting options courtesy of the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, where you can bet on fights online. From there, let’s make some educated guesses that should net you a nice payout come fight night.
Stephen Thompson -185 vs. Tyron Woodley +165
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +115
Odds Analysis
Thompson opened around a -150 favorite, but his line has moved 35 points to his current -185 status. It appears that bettors are buying into his hype and driving his money line down - to the point where he might be overvalued. Woodley will be an underdog for the second straight fight, and he’s an even bigger one than he was against Robbie Lawler.
The over/under for this five round championship fight is split down the middle at 2.5 rounds, with the over as the more expensive bet at -135. It’s a relatively low round total, as both men have finishing power. But they are both durable and only have one stoppage loss between them.
The Case for Woodley
T-Wood is the most explosive athlete in the welterweight division. Dude is fast and vicious - it only took one punch for him to drop the famously durable Robbie Lawler. This is a sport where speed kills, and nobody covers ground as fast Woodley. Just look at the man’s thighs. You get the sense he could’ve been a great running back. Instead, he was a D-1 wrestler.
It’s those quick-twitch muscles that could allow him to succeed where Hendricks and Rory MacDonald couldn’t. Both those guys failed to get inside the pocket quickly enough to penetrate Thompson’s defense. There’s no question that Woodley should be able to.
He leads with a crushing overhand right that comes so fast that most opponents can’t see it. Though Woodley has a relatively low output, he can get away with it because it only takes one of those bombs to put an unlucky fighter away. Along with that right hand, he’s got a whipping low kick that bruises the holy hell out of lead legs.
But where he could find the most success in with his wrestling. Wonderboy has shown drastically improved takedown defense against chained attempts, but Woodley’s reactive double legs are all about explosive speed. Thompson might never see them coming, and if he’s on the bottom, he’s in trouble.
The Case for Thompson
There literally is no fighter like Thompson on the UFC roster. Really, can you think of anyone else that fights from a bouncy sidestance? It looks freaking awesome, like he’s auditioning for the Kickboxer remake. I know there already is one featuring Georges St. Pierre, but I deny its existence due to it’s all-around crappiness.
Back to Thompson’s style. There is no better kicker on the roster, period. He throws side kicks like a lead jab, and it might be my favorite move of his. When he digs it into someone’s ribs, they get knocked the fu*k back. But wait! There’s more! Know what a question mark kick is? Basically Thompson fakes like he’s gonna throw a low kick, then switches the arc mid-kick to target the face. And he lands that shit!
What other kicks does he do? Oh I dunno, all of them. Spinning hook kicks, spinning back kicks, Daniel LaRusso crane kicks. And again, he does it from a sidestance that nobody else does. That gives him crazy range that lets him fight extremely long.
I haven’t even gotten into his boxing yet. Wonderboy is superb at slipping punches and firing straight punches. In fact, the majority of his seven KOs have come by way of punches. So yeah, don’t forget about those fists. Because they have a ton of fury.
Fight Breakdown
So I went a little overboard on the Thompson love, but it’s awesome to see a guy with such a fresh style. Really, Woodley has a great chance. Especially if you see him nail a takedown in the first round. If he can establish his wrestling early, that takes away much of Thompson’s game.
But then again, T-Wood has also had problems with conditioning that might surface in a five-rounder. He is a super-muscular guy, and his explosive fighting style tends to lead to a lack of oxygen later. He’ll have to conserve his energy, especially against somebody as elusive as Thompson.
Betting Values
Hear me out. I agree that Thompson should be the favorite, but Woodley is a fantastic underdog. Like Wonderboy, he has a nearly limitless ceiling. Though he’ll be outmatched on the feet, his explosive KO power is the great equalizer. I wouldn’t hold it against you to place a small bet on an upset. As for the over/under, I’d go with the over as Woodley will probably try and wrestle for good portions of this fight, which eats up clock.
Our Prediction: Thompson UD Woodley
