More than a year after suffering one of the biggest upsets in UFC history, Ronda Rousey will return to the octagon to fight for the bantamweight title. It’s one of the most compelling comeback stories of the year, surrounding the fighter who was the UFC’s biggest star before Conor McGregor snatched the distinction as the new double champ.
This is an extremely difficult fight to bet on, but we’ll do our best to guide you through your betting options. Let’s break it down.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Amanda Nunes +117
Ronda Rousey -137
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +185, under -225
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily.
Odds Analysis
In late October, Nunes opened as a +155 favorite. Since then, her money line has steadily decreased to the +117 you see today. This indicates that most of the action has been on the champion. In the same time frame, Rousey has gone from -180 to -137 - she’s now just a slight favorite instead of a significant one.
Like all Rousey fights, the over/under is 1.5 rounds, the lowest possible round total. The under is more than a 2-1 chalk, since both women are excellent in securing early finishes.
The Case for Rousey
We have to make a lot of assumptions here for a bet on Rousey. First, we have to assume that she is mentally recovered from a loss that had her publicly contemplating suicide. We’ve never seen a fighter fall so quickly from such great heights. It seemed as the entire world was not only celebrating her loss, but rubbing her nose in it.
If her mind is right, we have to overlook her poor performance against Holly Holm. It wouldn’t be fair for one disastrous loss to erase the extraordinary work she did prior to that. 12 straight wins by stoppage, with 11 coming in the first round? Nobody has ever tore through a division like that - not Conor McGregor, GSP or Anderson Silva.
It might just be that Holm had her number, or that Rousey had overextended herself leading into the fight - leaving little room to train for a highly skilled fighter. There is a chance that the killer that became the most popular fighter in the world reappears - and that fighter was damn near unstoppable.
The Case for Nunes
“Lioness” is the evolution of women’s MMA. She is a spectacular athlete with knockout power and a high level of all-around skill. On the feet, she is a lethal Muay Thai technician with nine KOs in 13 career victories. When it comes to grappling, Nunes is a bona fide black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
It’s her striking that Rousey should be extremely weary of. Nunes is fresh off of making Miesha Tate - one of the most experienced fighters in women’s MMA - look like aamateur in the standup phase. Considering how Holm exposed Rousey’s shallow striking depth, Nunes will have a huge advantage every second this fight stays on the feet.
Even if Ronda can use her judo to get this fight to the mat, she will have to contend with Nunes’ elite grappling skills. Though Lioness is much more comfortable in the top position, one doesn’t receive a black belt without learning how to defend against armbars. We’ve actually never seen anyone go toe-to-toe with Rousey on the ground, but Nunes has the background to do so.
Betting Breakdown
There are too many questions surrounding Rousey for me to endorse a bet on her. In fact, Nunes getting underdog odds is a fantastic value. At 28, she seems to be peaking as a fighter, while Rousey has been making movies and taking time off to recover from the beating she took.
UFC odds pick: Nunes to win at +155
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UFC 207 takes place on Friday, December 30, 2016 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 9 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
