Title fights are awesome. Grudge matches are even better. A title fight that’s also a grudge match? That’s can’t-miss television, and this Saturday’s bantamweight title bout between Dominick Cruz and Cody Garbrandt is exactly that. Cruz has beef with all Team Alpha Male, but he’s taken special exception to “No Love’s” bold outbursts.
But this goes beyond Twitter fingers: Garbrandt is the division’s most dangerous knockout artist, while Cruz’s elusive footwork is a puzzle that nobody seems able to solve. Something’s gotta give here. Let’s break down the fight along with your betting options.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Cody Garbrandt +177
Dominick Cruz -206
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -225, under +185
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are updated on a daily basis and subject to change.
Odds Analysis
In late October, Cruz opened as a -219 favorite at BookMaker, and his line has stayed in this range, never going above -210. In the same time, Garbrandt has gone from +169 up to the +180 you’re seeing as of today.
The over/under on this five-round title bout is split down the middle at 2.5, although the over is more than a 2-1 chalk at -225. The under is set at +190, indicating that oddsmakers feel that an early finish isn’t a very likely outcome.
The Case for Cruz
“The Dominator” appears to be fully recovered from a slew of major injuries that restriced to fighting only four bouts from 2011-2016. While much of his prime was taken from him, he hasn’t taken much damage due to his fighting style, and he’s still just 31 years old.
The Alliance MMA ace hasn’t lost since 2007, ever since he mastered a distinct matador style of fighting that has visibly frustrated every one of his opponents. He’ll lean in, daring opponents to hit him, then dance out of range and make them chase. While Cruz is awkward and unpredictable, he is deadly efficient at the same time.
As the premier defensive specialist in MMA, Cruz isn’t a knockout threat, instead choosing to win on points. His strikes have gained more snap over the years, but they are still mainly a setup for opportunistic takedowns. It’s a formula he could executes with ease, and one that nobody has been able to break yet.
The Case for Garbrandt
Just 25 years old, “No Love” is already a stud - 10-0, 9 KOs, with eight of those coming before the third round. He is the most dangerous power puncher that Cruz has faced, and three straight first-round knockout wins have given Garbrandt unlimited confidence. His punching skill is undeniable, considering that he has been boxing since age 15 and has a 32-1 record as an amateur pugilist.
That killshot power makes you forget that Garbrandt is a capable wrestler, winning a state championship in high school and receiving inquiries from D-1 colleges. He still visits his old alma mater in Ohio to train kids in the sport, and Team Alpha Male is highly regarded as one of the top wrestling camps in the sport. Because he prefers to fight on the feet, his MMA wrestling has been mostly of the defensive variety, which suits him just fine.
Against Cruz, Garbrandt should have an advantage in athleticism and speed. This is crucial against a keepaway guy like “The Dominator”, as Cody will need to cover distance quickly to get his hands on the champ.
Betting Breakdown
While Cody has an undeniably bright future at 135 pounds, this is a case of too much, too soon. Garbrandt loves to pressure and rush forward, playing right into Cruz’s strengths. He will have moments of success, but his style leaves him too open to chasing and eating counters. Cruz has never been knocked out, and it’s unlikely that somebody as green as Garbrandt will be able to be the first to do so.
UFC odds pick: Cruz UD Garbrandt
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UFC 207 takes place on Friday, December 30, 2016 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 9 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
