This Saturday’s UFC 208 main event is a historic moment for the promotion, as Holly Holm and Germaine De Randamie will fight in the first-ever featherweight bout for the inaugural title. But it just doesn’t feel very special. For starters, pound-for-pound queen Cris Cyborg is nowhere near this fight - the Brazilian is long regarded as easily the best 145-pound fighter in the world.
Then there’s the issue of Holm having lost her last two fights. Though she’s the former bantamweight champ, you’d be hard-pressed to find anybody who truly believes that she’s deserving of a title shot. As for the other half of this title fight, there’s a good chance you’ve never heard of Germaine De Randamie.
Despite the bizarre circumstances surrounding this fight, it’s still a significant scrap for the UFC. Let’s take a look at your UFC betting options and break down the tilt.
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Women’s Featherweight Championship
Holly Holm +100
Germaine De Randamie -120
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -125, under +105
The Case For Holm
Any argument for Holm has to start with her boxing skill. A multiple time, multiple weight world champion in the sport of boxing, the 35-year old’s success in MMA can largely be accredited to her fine footwork and crisp striking technique.
Of course, Miesha Tate exposed a major flaw in Holm’s grappling, but that won’t be an issue against a Dutch kickboxer. Holm had trouble trying to be the aggressor against Valentina Shevchenko, a Muay Thai ace, but she should be able to settle back into her defensive style against a more offensive-minded De Randamie.
The Case for De Randamie
“The Iron Lady” comes the Netherlands, a country that has produced some of the world’s best kickboxers. Kudos to her for committing to evolving her game at AKA, a premier camp. Still, she is by far the most effective in the standup. Against an overmatched Anna Elmose, De Randamie showed off plus hand and foot speed, finishing her strikes with a snap not typical of most fighters.
She will be the bigger woman in this matchup, and that should let her initiate her vicious clinch game. Though she is excellent on the feet, De Randamie truly shines when she’s locked up the Thai plum and is unloading with knees. Holm has never been held in place before, but De Randamie has the tools to bully her.
The Betting Breakdown
Since shocking the world with an upset win over Ronda Rousey, Holm has suffered the first two losses of her MMA career. The defeat to Tate doesn’t really apply - Holly just got caught in a fight she was winning. But the loss to Shevchenko is another story. Against a striker that matched her in standup skill, Holm could not impose her will. That will likely be the case against De Randamie, an even bigger, more athletic Shevchenko.
UFC odds pick: De Randamie UD Holm
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UFC 208 takes place on Saturday, February 11, 2017 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view following the FS1 prelims.
