We’ve had a few nice UFC cards so far in 2017, but this Saturday marks the first can’t-miss pay-per-view of the year. UFC 209 has that “big card” feel, with two awesome title fights anchoring the night.
The rematch between Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson is great, but if we’re being honest it’s the interim lightweight title match between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson that has the fight world buzzing.
Also on the card is a heavyweight contenders matchup between Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt, the middleweight debut of former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans, and a few other notable scraps we’ll get into below.
Let’s check out your UFC betting odds at BookMaker.eu, and make a few common sense quick picks to win you some cash.
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Main Event
Welterweight Championship
Stephen Thompson -156
Tyron Woodley +131
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -175, under +150
Common Sense Says...
They fought to a majority draw last time, allowing Woodley to keep his belt. Woodley had more impactful moments, nearly finishing Thompson with a flurry in the fourth, but it was “Wonderboy” who did more work over five rounds.
This is still about as close a matchup as you can get, making it really difficult to pick a winner. But if Woodley can make a few adjustments, he has the better tools to work with. Mixing in a few takedowns and upping his aggression would make a big difference, as Thompson proved unable to handle T-Wood’s wrestling and speed when the champ committed.
UFC odds pick: Woodley to win at +110
Co-Main Event
Lightweight Championship
Khabib Nurmagomedov -191
Tony Ferguson +161
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -165, under +140
Common Sense Says
Nurmagomedov’s wrestling has suffocated almost every opponent he’s faced en route to a flawless 24-0 record. It’s just on a different level than anyone else in the game. As dynamic as Ferguson is, it’s tough to see him holding up against the brutally strong Russian over five rounds.
There are some wild cards in “El Cucuy’s” favor. First, he is supremely well-conditioned, and Nurmagomedov has never faced such an active opponent. Ferguson went balls out for five rounds at Mexico City altitude while Nurmagomedov has never gone past a third. Keep an eye on the odds - if Ferguson closes above +200 take a small bet on him. He’s almost impossible to prepare for.
UFC odds pick: Ferguson to win IF he hits +200 or higher
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem -140
Mark Hunt +120
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +109, under -129
Common Sense Says
Overeem has a glass jaw, and Mark Hunt is the king of walkoff knockouts. But it’s a bit more complicated than that. Stipe Miocic dominated Hunt with a blend of wrestling and kickboxing, and Overeem has the tools to do the same.
With his height and reach advantage, along with his lethal standup skills, Overeem can keep the smaller Hunt at bay. Plus, he could very well use his underrated wrestling ability to make sure he never has to eat Hunt’s fists. In fact, I think we’ll see a very conservative Overeem, making the over an enticing play.
UFC odds pick: Over 1.5 rounds at +109
Quick Hits
Rashad Evans -211 vs. Daniel Kelly +176
Lando Vannata -260 vs. David Teymur +218
Kelly is as tough as they come, but the 39-year old’s lack of speed and athleticism against Rashad Evans puts him at a serious disadvantage. We all love Kelly’s heart, but he’s taking a big step up in competition after three unlikely wins.
UFC odds pick: Evans to win at -211
We’d love to see more of 24-year old Lando Vannata’s funky style. His matchup with fellow prospect David Teymur should produce plenty of fireworks as both men love to sling hard leather. The under seems like a good play here, as neither fights past 1.5 rounds often.
UFC odds pick: Under 1.5 rounds +170
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UFC 209 takes place on Saturday, March 4, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
