The ridiculously awesome matchup between Russian sambo buzzsaw Khabib Nurmagomedov and human Tasmanian devil Tony Ferguson is finally going down this Saturday. Here’s a quick look at what’s at stake: Nurmy’s flawless 24-0 record, Ferguson’s 9-fight winning streak, the interim strap and the right to challenge Conor McGregor.
Each man is a different embodiment of relentless. Khabib with his wrestling, and Ferguson with his pace. With the hype surrounding this matchup, the betting action is gonna be hot. Let’s take a look at your UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your options.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Lightweight Championship
Khabib Nurmagomedov -191
Tony Ferguson +161
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -165, under +140
Advantage: Nurmagomedov
Wrestling. Nurmy’s already in the pantheon of great MMA wrestlers - right up there with GSP, Matt Hughes and Cain Velasquez. Look no further than his last fight with a top-10 ranked Michael Johnson.
Not only did he ragdoll the quicker Johnson around, the Russian immediately pinned down arms with his leg and pummeled his helpless opponent. It was a horrific display of brutality that had everyone watching openly questioning why the fight wasn’t stopped earlier.
Strength. Pound-for-pound, “The Eagle” is one of the strongest fighters in the sport. There’s just no escaping his grip once he gets a hold of you, and his natural core strength gives him immense leverage in any position. Once he gets enemies into a body lock, he’s got an assortment of trips, sweeps and throws to get on top of dudes.
Advantage: Ferguson
Striking. Despite getting bullied by Nurmagomedov, Michael Johnson did light him up on the feet for a good two minutes. Ferguson is an infinitely more creative and dynamic striker that Johsnon - and he’s taller and longer too. The longer this fight stays on the feet, Ferguson’s chances of pulling off an upset increase exponentially.
Cardio. Khabib’s well-conditioned, but you get the sense that Ferguson could go 10 rounds and still look fresh. His bottomless gas tank provides “El Cucuy” two major weapons: activity and volume. Opponents get no rest against him, they’re either defending against strikes, submissions or some crazy ass tactic that Ferguson seems to just throw in to keep them guessing.
His superior cardio was never more visible than in his last fight against former champion Rafael dos Anjos. At 10,000+ feet in Mexico City, Ferguson threw 199 strikes and not once started slowing down.
How You Should Bet
There are two solid plays here to maximize your payout with these UFC odds. The first is the over on 2.5 rounds at -180. Both men are durable enough to make it past the halfway point, and it hedges your bet against an upset.
The second value bet is Ferguson to win at +175. Nurmagomedov is the favorite for a good reason, but he’s facing a completely unique fighter. If you see Ferguson get anywhere close to +200, a small bet makes sense.
UFC odds pick: Over 3.5 rounds at -165, Ferguson to win IF he hits +200
Bet on UFC 209 odds now!
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UFC 209 takes place on Saturday, March 4, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
