In May 2015, Chris Weidman was 13-0 and coming off his third successful middleweight title defense. There were whispers that the former collegiate wrestling champ was on the verge of sustaining a dominant title run in the post-Anderson Silva era. But in his next match, he was TKO’d by Luke Rockhold - losing the strap - and was starched by Yoel Romero nearly a year later.
This Saturday, “The All American” isn’t only trying to stop a two-fight win streak, he’s fighting to stay relevant in a crowded middleweight title picture. In his way is Gegard Mousasi, a Dutch-Armenian veteran on an impressive four fight winning streak. It’s a pivotal matchup for both men, as Mousasi is finally looking like the world-class contender the UFC was expecting when they signed him in 2013.
Let’s take a look at the UFC fight odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the best way to bet this high-stakes clash.
Bet on UFC 210 odds at BookMaker.eu
Chris Weidman +108
Gegard Mousasi -127
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -180, under +155
Odds Analysis
Just a few weeks ago, both men opened at -110, making this a pick’em bout. But since then, the action has moved Weidman into slight underdog territory, as his money line has moved 20 points to +110. Mousasi’s line has gone in the other direction, as he’s now at -130.
The over/under for this three-rounder is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over the significantly more expensive play. This is interesting since both men haven’t fought past that mark often in the past few years.
How Weidman Wins
The Serra-Longo Fight Team rep needs to implement a gameplan that revolves around the threat of his wrestling. He’s one of the best in the division when it comes to takedowns and control, and his reputation requires opponents to respect this particular MMA skill.
Weidman is dangerous on the feet, able to dish out serious damage with his fists even when it looks like he’s not putting much behind his punches. But against elite strikers, the 32-year old cannot afford to let guys get comfortable in their standup.
Mousasi is an extremely savvy striker with decent takedown defense. The easiest path for Weidman to win is to mix in takedown attempts fluidly within his striking offense. This puts Mousasi on his toes and takes away part of his game as well.
How Mousasi Wins
One of the most cerebral fighters in the sport, Mousasi is all about picking opponents apart. He identifies weaknesses and picks at them, opening up his options from there.
Sometimes, this leads to entire fights where he’ll jab away at opponents, like in his UFC debut against Ilir Latifi. Other times, like against Vitor Belfort, he’ll let his probing open up the floodgates.
Against Weidman, Mousasi must stay on his feet where he has the advantage. Though he is a dangerous submission artist, Weidman’s brand of MMA wrestling is advanced enough to maintain control while defending against possible subs. If he’s able to stop a few takedowns early, Weidman could be forced into an uncomfortable fight.
How You Should Bet
Oddsmakers were correct to initially frame the UFC fight odds as a toss-up. This is largely a result of Weidman’s recent slide coinciding with Mousasi’s surge. While Mousasi will have his hands full against a wrestler, there is no question that mentally he’s in a much better place right now.
Mousasi’s money line to win at -130 is cheaper than the likely outcome that this fight goes over 2.5 rounds. Although the over hedges against an upset, Weidman needs an easier opponent to gain his confidence back.
UFC odds pick: Mousasi to win at -130
Bet on UFC 210 Odds Now
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UFC 210 takes place on Saturday, April 8, 2017 at the Keybank Center in Buffalo, New York. The main card airs on pay-per-view following the FS1 prelims.
