Jan Blachowicz is a slight favorite against Patrick Cummins at UFC 210 on Saturday in Buffalo, New York. Blachowicz is 19-6 in his career, while Cummins is 8-4. Both are ranked 12th in the latest UFC rankings in the light heavyweight division, so this should be a good matchup. This fight is one of four fights on the FS1 preliminary card leading up to the five-fight main pay-per-view card which features Anthony Johnson vs. Daniel Cormier. Let’s look at Cummins vs. Blachowicz and UFC picks.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Blachowicz -125 vs. Cummins (rounds 1.5 over -255)
Jan Blachowicz (19-6, 2-3 UFC)
Blachowicz has been up and down in his UFC career, as he beats marginal opponents but loses to good ones. He beat Ilir Latifi and Igor Pokrajac but lost to Jimi Manuwa, Corey Anderson and Alexander Gustafsson. There is little doubt that Blachowicz will look to go right at Cummins and get a quick knockout in this fight. The danger for Blachowicz is getting caught in a takedown because Cummins has the edge on the mat.
Blachowicz has been a pro since 2007 and has won five of his fights by knockout and seven by submission. He has six first round finishes among those decisions. Most of the knockouts were early in his career, as eight of the last nine Blachowicz fights have gone to a decision.
Patrick Cummins (8-4, 4-4 UFC)
Cummins has lost three of his last four fights but it is not like he was fighting weak opponents, as his losses came to Ovince Saint Preux, Glover Teixeira and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. The only other loss for Cummins came to Daniel Cormier and there is no shame in losing to Cormier. Cummins will have the edge in this fight against Blachowicz if he can get it to the mat.
Cummins has lost two straight fights for the first time in his career. This will be his 9th UFC fight since February of 2014, the most of any other light heavyweight in that time period. Cummins has 8.67 takedowns per 15 minutes in UFC action. He completes 51.7% of his takedowns. He had 10 takedowns against Kyle Kingsbury at UFC on FOX 12, the second most in a light heavyweight bout in UFC history.
UFC Picks
The edge in striking looks to be with Blachowicz, while the edge in wrestling is with Cummins. There is little doubt, as to how this fight is going to start with Blachowicz going right at Cummins and seeing if Cummins can take a few shots. If Cummins can survive the early onslaught he should have a good chance to get a takedown as Blachowicz does not have good takedown defense.
This fight has all the looks of a battle on the mat and that should favor Cummins. I will take Cummins and the rounds to go over.
Main Card (pay-per-view)
Anthony Johnson -120 vs. Daniel Cormier (rounds 1.5 over -160)
Gegard Mousasi -110 vs. Chris Weidman (rounds 2.5 over -185)
Patrick Cote -160 vs. Thiago Alves (rounds 2.5 over -190)
Will Brooks -255 vs. Charles Oliveira (rounds 2.5 over -130)
Cynthia Calvillo -280 vs. Pearl Gonzalez (rounds 2.5 over -195)
Preliminary Card (FS1)
Kamaru Usman -325 vs. Sean Strickland (rounds 2.5 over -230)
Shane Burgos -220 vs. Charles Rosa (rounds 2.5 over -150)
Jan Blachowicz -125 vs. Patrick Cummins (rounds 1.5 over -255)
Myles Jury -400 vs. Mile De La Torre (rounds 2.5 over -210)
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Josh Emmett -212 vs. Desmond Green (rounds 2.5 over -230)
Gregor Gillespie -225 vs. Andrew Holbrook (rounds 2.5 over -210)
Katlyn Chookagian -156 vs. Irene Aldana (rounds 2.5 over -140)
Magomed Bibulatov -450 vs. Jenel Lausa (rounds 2.5 over -210)
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 takes place on Saturday, April 8 at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. The event features a rematch between Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson with Cormier defending his light heavyweight title.
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