Former heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum (21-6-1, 6 KOs, 10 SUBs) will meet Dutch kickboxer Alistair Overeem (42-15, 19 KOs, 19 SUBs) at UFC 213 on July 8, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now!
Ever since losing the belt to Stipe Miocic at UFC 198, Fabricio Werdum has been gunning for a rematch. He could very well get it should he get past perennial contender Alistair Overeem. The heavyweights are scheduled to clash on the main card of this Saturday’s UFC 213. On a personal level, Werdum can also avenge a 2011 Strikeforce loss to Overeem, where the Brazilian embarrassed himself by lying on his back and literally praying for Alistair to follow him to the ground.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the fight from a betting perspective.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Alistair Overeem -130
Fabricio Werdum +100
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -180, under +150
Preview & Analysis
Casual fans might be quick to generalize this as a “grappler vs. striker” matchup. After all, Werdum is a multiple-time BJJ world champion while Overeem is a former K-1 kickboxing champ.
But Werdum’s kickboxing has dramatically improved under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro at King’s MMA, to the point where it not only has to be respected, but feared. In contrast, Overeem has always been an underrated submission artist, as his brutal top game and strength has paved the way for 19 career wins via submission.
Neither man can survive a big hit from the other. The Reem is famed for his one-hitter quitter ability - and it comes from all his limbs. Notably, he took out Arlovski with a front kick, wiped out Junior dos Santo with punches, retired Brock Lesnar with body kicks, and stopped Mark Hunt with a single knee. He is one of the most dynamic offensive heavyweights in all of MMA.
But Overeem’s chin is a major liability, and it only takes one solid connection to drain both his gas tank and his mental fortitude. He seems unable to fully recover from a big hit - undeniably the result of an alarming 10 times losses by KO/TKO.
While Werdum was knocked out cold by Mioicic, he has generally been durable over the course of his career. The loss to the current champ was only the second time he’d been stopped by strikes. And while he’s getting up in years at 39 years old, going three rounds hasn’t been an issue like it’s been for Overeem.
UFC Betting Pick
The money lines reflect a relatively even matchup, and to be honest any underdog in this fight would be a good pick. In this case, it’s easy to talk yourself into choosing Werdum. The Brazilian is good at avoiding major damage, and excels at making fights ugly.
Expect Werdum to clinch and force Overeem to expend energy, then pick off a tired heavyweight en route to a late finish. Enjoy the plus payout on his money line.
UFC odds pick: Werdum to win at +100
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UFC 213 takes place on July 8, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m.
