Let’s try this again. After pulling out a scheduled title defense at UFC 213 with a sudden case of severe sinusitis, women’s featherweight champion Amanda Nunes will now face No. 1 contender Valentina Shevchenko in the co-main event of UFC 215 this Saturday.
It’s an extremely competitive matchup, as fans seem divided as to who has the edge. The divided opinions have had an effect in the sportsbooks as well - both women have gone back and forth as favorites.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the best betting values for this title scrap.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Amanda Nunes -105
Valentina Shevchenko -125
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +115
Fight Preview
This is a matchup between the division’s most explosive striker and it’s most resilient fighter. Nunes has been on an all-out tear, retiring Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate - the division’s two biggest stars - in consecutive fights. In both those scraps, “Lioness” lit up her opponents so handily that it looked like they had no business in the octagon with her.
The Brazilian champ is without a doubt the hardest hitter at 135 pounds. In fact, you could argue that she’s the only true knockout artist in the weight class. A superior athlete, Nunes has blazing hand speed and keeps girls at the end of her punches. While she doesn’t quite have the power to turn out the lights with a single strike, it only takes a few clean shots to cause irreparable harm.
Because her striking is so scary, it’s easy to forget that Nunes is a BJJ black belt on the ground. The American Top Team ace has never had to rely on grappling for wins, as she uses her submission skills mainly to catch a quick sub after she’s made an opponent punch-drunk.
Shevchenko is undoubtedly the biggest threat to Nunes in the division. A world champion in Muay Thai, the Russian is at home striking for an entire fight. She doesn’t have the power that Nunes does, but “Bullet” makes up for it with a nasty clinch game that features a steady diet of brutal knees. And in her most recent outing, Shevchenko pulled out a lightning quick submission on Julianna Pena - a skilled wrestler. Obviously, she is as comfortable on the mat as she is on the feet.
But her best weapon against Nunes will be her durability and cardio. In their first encounter, Shevchenko lost the first two rounds, only to swing the momentum in the third when Nunes started to gas. Had the fight been scheduled for five rounds, it certainly looked winnable for Shevchenko.
UFC Betting Tips
With only two points separating the money lines, this matchup is basically a pick’em. I’d lean towards Nunes in this case, simply as she has better tools overall. Output has historically been a problem for Shevchenko, and Nunes will likely be conserving her energy while still doing more damage.
If you’re iffy about picking a winner, go with the over on 2.5 rounds. Four of Shevchenko’s last five fights have gone the distance, and she is far better equipped to weather Nunes striking.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 2.5 rounds -135
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UFC 215 takes place on Saturday, September 9, 2017 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
