This Saturday, Demetrious Johnson will attempt to go down in history as the only man in the UFC to make 11 straight title defenses. Trying to stop him - and pull off one of the biggest upsets in the sport’s history - is 25-year old Ray Borg. Let’s just say Borg’s chances are slim at best.
The co-main event should be a lot more competitive, with Amanda Nunes rematching Valentina Shevchenko for the Brazilian’s bantamweight title. These are without a doubt the two best fighters in the division, and neither fans nor analyst can seem to settle on a winner.
Also on the card is former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, looking to go 2-for-2 at welterweight. Gilbert Melendez, another lightweight contender, will be moving down a weight class to rejuvenate his career.
Let’s get into the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
Main Event
Demetrious Johnson -1248
Ray Borg +718
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -110, under -120
Reading Between the Lines
Mighty Mouse hasn’t been this big a favorite since September 2014, when non-contender Chris Cariaso stepped in on short notice in a matchup created for convenience. In that bout, Johnson closed at -1450.
At -900, Borg’s got a slightly better shot, but the reality here is that he’s a still-developing 25-year old facing the most well-rounded champion in the UFC. There’s simply no MMA phase where he’ll have an advantage against the champ. Johnson is almost assuredly walking away with his hand raised.
UFC Betting Tips
Johnson’s price is too expensive to be anything more than a parlay. The rounds under offers far better value at -105, and the talent gap between the two is big enough to justify a bet.
UFC Odds Pick: Under 4.5 rounds at -105
Co-Main Event
Amanda Nunes -105
Valentina Shevchenko -126
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +105
Reading Between the Lines
Both women have been the favorites, but their money lines have remained close for the past few weeks. Picking a winner here is tough, and the fact that both their prices in the chalk mack choosing a wager even harder.
We lean slightly towards Nunes in this title fight, as she is the superior athlete with far more explosive capabilities on the feet and mat than Shevchenko. Her cardio is an issue, but an elite camp like American Top Team would definitely be focusing on that, especially for a five-rounder.
Shevchenko’s historic lack of output also needs to be addressed. She usually takes a while to get going, and there’s a good chance she’ll give up a lead she can’t overcome.
UFC Betting Tips
All your options here are around the same range, with the only underdog play being the rounds under at +105. Shevchenko is too durable and Nunes is too skilled for this fight to end that early, making the over your safest play.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -130
Featherweight
Gilbert Melendez -120
Jeremy Stephens -110
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -225, under +170
Reading Between the Lines
Another close matchup here, with both Stephens and Melendez coming into the scrap with recent losing records. The difference here is that Melendez appears to be physically declining at age 35. While his recent losses have come against lightweight contenders, Edson Barboza proved far too athletic for him.
Melendez is hoping a smaller weight class will let him use his wrestling more, but Stephens has always been a very big featherweight. It’s doubtful that he can take this to the ground at will, but it’s easy to see him pressing Stephens into the cage for the majority of the fight. The former Strikeforce champ will want to avoid prolonged striking exchanges with a more dynamic standup artist.
UFC Betting Tips
At near even money, Melendez isn’t a bad bet. His ability to wrestle and clinch will be a difference-maker.
UFC Odds Pick: Melendez to win at -120
Welterweight
Rafael dos Anjos -200
Neil Magny +160
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -230, under +170
Reading Between the Lines
Dos Anjos looked fantastic against Tarec Saffiedine in his welterweight debut, and now takes a big step up the ladder against Magny. Size will be an issue, as Magny is 6’3” to the Brazilian’s 5’9”, but Dos Anjos is a pressure fighter who will quickly take away the reach advantage. Magny tends to panic in close quarters, making this a good style matchup for the former lightweight champ.
UFC Betting Tips
At +160, Magny is a live ‘dog. While he might struggle with RDA’s aggressiveness, his combination of size, length, athleticism and cardio gives him a very good shot to pull off the upset.
UFC Odds Pick: Magny to win at +160
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UFC 215 takes place on Saturday, September 9, 2017 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
