Let’s try this again. Demetrious Johnson will attempt to make a record-breaking 11th consecutive title defense this Saturday when he meets Ray Borg - a second try of the matchup after Ray Borg was pulled from their originally scheduled UFC 215 encounter with a sudden illness.
Nothing’s changed here, except the date. Johnson is still a massive favorite, and Borg is still likely going to get dusted. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds and break down how you should bet this scrap.
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Demetrious Johnson - 1250
Ray Borg +705
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over +100, under -130
Fight Breakdown
If you were going to create the perfect UFC fighter, you could pretty much just clone “Mighty Mouse” and call it a day. He’s fast, athletic and naturally very strong. In terms of MMA skill, he’s awesome in every MMA phase, and nobody blends striking, wrestling and grappling together into one cohesive style like DJ.
The scariest part about Johnson is that he’s still getting better. He’s hardly even been tested during his current 12-fight win streak, and it just seems like he’s pulling away from the rest of the pack. As if to prove a point, Johnson will attack a fighter’s strength just to show that he can beat an opponent at his own game.
So what chance does Borg really have? He is a gifted grappler, able to control his opponents on the mat and drive them to expose themselves for a submission. The Albuquerque native is ridiculously strong, clamping onto guys like a vice and torquing whatever limb he can get a hold of.
The 24-year old has also rapidly improved as a striker since he started training at Jackson-Wink. No longer completely out of his element against good standup fighters, Borg has the footwork, head movement and combinations to actually compete in a kickboxing session. Nobody’s mistaking him for Joanna Jedrzejczyk any time soon, but it does appear that he can be a good striker in time.
Unfortunately for Borg, there really doesn’t appear to be a path to victory against Johnson. He doesn’t hit hard enough to have a puncher’s chance, and Johnson’s counter-wrestling is too good for Borg to force him to make a mistake. Just making it to the end of the fight would be a moral victory for the still-developing challenger.
UFC Betting Tip
You’ve got two options. The first is to parlay the price on Johnson - it’s too expensive to bet straight up unless you’ve got massive amounts of cash to throw around. The other is to go the rounds under, which is riskier but offers a far better payout. I’m surprised that oddsmakers have assigned a round total at 4.5, considering how much more advanced DJ is at this stage in their careers. There’s a very good chance he finishes it before that mark.
UFC Odds Pick: Under 4.5 rounds -130
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UFC 215 takes place on Saturday, September 9, 2017 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
