Derrick Lewis didn’t stay retired very long. Less than five months after his loss to Mark Hunt - when he announced that he’d step away from the sport - “The Black Beast” will meet former champion Fabricio Werdum in a high-stakes heavyweight matchup.
A win for Lewis would put him right back in the title mix, while there’s a very good chance that Werdum could find himself challenging for the belt - or a title eliminator at the very least - with a win of his own. Either way, it’s an intriguing style clash with the potential for a lot of violence.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the betting options.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Derrick Lewis +180
Fabricio Werdum -230
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +103, under -133
Matchup Breakdown
Lewis’ rapid rise through the heavyweight ranks - courtesy of a six-fight winning streak - is nearly inexplicable. He’s a giant man with knockout power, but his cardio is questionable, he’s not a dominant wrestler and his technique lacks polish.
So how did a guy with such a basic skillset end up beating respectable big men like Gabriel Gonzaga, Roy Nelson and Travis Browne? The answer is simple: Lewis is a tough SOB who somehow hangs on until he can uncork a shot that changes the complexion of the fight. His fight against Browne is the perfect example: Lewis was lit up with body kicks and looked out for the count until he unleashed a string of punches that put “Hapa” away.
Killshot power, durability and heart can take you pretty far in the heavyweight division, but at some point the top contenders will pick you apart. That was the case against Mark Hunt, a decorated K-1 kickboxing champion whose superior technique proved far too much for a simple tough guy.
Werdum has the distinction of being one of the few men to ever knock out Hunt, and he did so with a spectacular flying knee. While the Brazilian’s BJJ will always be the most dangerous aspect of his game, his Muay Thai training under Rafael Cordeiro deserves its own accolades.
Like many King’s MMA fighters, he is very good at applying pressure and landing in volume. Werdum’s striking might not be pretty, but his technique is solid and he can be very unpredictable on the feet.
How You Should Bet
In this matchup, Werdum has more paths to victory. While he might not be able to take down Lewis right away, he has the type of dynamic, three-dimensional striking that Lewis has trouble with. Once Lewis tires - something that’s inevitable - things will get easy for Werdum. Lay the price on “Vai Cavalo” to win.
UFC odds pick: Werdum to win at -230
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UFC 216 takes place on Saturday October 7, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
