This Saturday’s interim lightweight title fight between Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee was a fight booking that snuck up on the MMA community. It wasn’t something that people were particularly clamoring for - most fans were holding out in hopes that Khabib Nurmagomedov would come back and finally fight for a belt.
But you know what? This is a damn good fight, even if it’s not really the one everyone wanted. And it’s about damn time Ferguson gets a title shot. After nine straight wins, we were starting what it takes for a guy not named McGregor to get a title shot.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down what should be an excellent fight.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Kevin Lee +164
Tony Ferguson -214
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -130, under +100
Fight Preview
There’s no good reason why Ferguson isn’t a star yet. It’s true that “El Cucuy” is kind of a strange dude, but he’s definitely not a boring personality. More importantly, the 33-year old is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC today. He is violent, physical and wildly unpredictable inside the cage.
Physically, Ferguson is tall, rangy and an excellent athlete. He’s also a fighter without weakness, adept in striking, wrestling, clinchfighting and grappling. What makes him elite is how creative and relentless he is.
The man is whirlwind of offense that never seems to get tired. He has no problems somersaulting for takedowns, throwing multi-elbow combinations or jumping all over a submission during a scramble. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him do all of the above in the opening minute of a scrap.
There are only a handful of fighters on the entire roster who I truly believe to have weaponized their cardio, and Ferguson is one of them. It’s exhausting just watching him fight - it’s hard to imagine what it would be like actually tangling with him. In his last fight, at crushing altitude in Mexico City, Ferguson threw nearly 200 strikes and went five hard rounds with Rafael dos Anjos. Not once did it seem like he was slowing down.
All the praise of Ferguson might make it seem like Kevin Lee is doomed, but that’s far from fact. The truth is that Lee might have one of the best styles to match up with El Cucuy. He will absolutely be at a disadvantage on the feet, but that might not matter: at 25, he is already one of the best submission fighters in the division.
What makes Lee special is that he has the natural strength and athleticism to impose his game, which his clamping onto opponents and advancing until he finds a submission. Imagine a younger, uber-athletic Demian Maia and you can get the idea of what type of fighter Lee is. And unlike the Brazilian, Lee is rapidly improving his standup and finding a striking groove.
UFC Betting Tips
Based on his winning streak and who he’s beaten during this incredible run, Ferguson’s status as a big favorite is clearly warranted. But that also opens up some opportunity for you: Lee is most certainly a live ‘dog in this matchup.
The way “The Motown Phenom” muscled around Michael Chiesa to earn this title shot put him in a new light - nobody has ever manhandled Chiesa like that. If Lee can settle in and start hitting takedowns early, that success could very well snowball into an upset. At his current price, Lee warrants a small bet.
UFC Odds Pick: Lee to win at +164
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UFC 215 takes place on Saturday, September 9, 2017 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
