A fighter like Justin Gaethje shouldn’t exist in the UFC today, much less carry an 18-0 record. The level of competition is just too good for a guy whose strategy revolves around eating punches until his opponent gets tired. But that’s exactly what he did in his UFC debut against Michael Johnson, and that’s how he won in what the favorite for Fight of the Year.
And now for the encore. This Saturday, Gaethje will meet former champion Eddie Alvarez in Detroit - and the potential for violence is off the charts in this one. We’ve all been waiting for another look at “The Highlight”, and it’s finally time to see if this brawler can truly be a contender.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the matchup and pick your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Justin Gaethje -196
Eddie Alvarez +154
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -185, under +160
Matchup Preview
There’s just no way that Gaethje can keep fighting like he did against Johnson. Right?? Numerous times, he was tagged so hard that it looked like he was out on his feet. Yet somehow he just kept zombie-ing forward and somehow looked to get stronger as the fight went on - like some bizarro version of the Hulk.
Against a powerful striker like Conor McGregor or Edson Barboza, that just wouldn’t fly. Against Alvarez though, it might. Eddie can slug for sure, but he’s not the one-hitter quitter that those other dudes are. Aside from his flash knockout of RDA, Eddie has barely shown that type of power inside the UFC.
If Alvarez wants to win, he’s got to avoid getting into a firefight. The Alvarez that fought years ago in Bellator and Dream might hot have been able to hold back, but the UFC version of Eddie has shown he can be patient. Sometimes, it’s not pretty, like when he pressed Anthony Pettis into the cage for three rounds, but it shows his commitment to avoiding damage and winning at all costs.
In fact, nobody would be surprised if Alvarez resorted to a more tactical, wrestling-oriented gameplan. Gaethje has a career 66% takedown defense, which is good, but not great. While he was the WSOF, he didn’t really face too many talented wrestlers either. The UFC is filled with them, and Alvarez is a guy that will commit to takedowns if necessary.
UFC Betting Tips
Betting on a Gaethje fight is scary - his willingness to take damage and ability to force a brawl makes any bet an extremely dicey proposition. We lean Alvarez here simply because Gaethje’s recklessness will eventually cause a loss, and Eddie has the wrestling and striking to hurt him in almost any phase. He’s a live ‘dog here with a decent payout.
UFC Odds Pick: Alvarez to win at +154
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UFC 218 takes place on Saturday, December 2, 2017 at the Little Caesar’s Arena in Detroit Michigan. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET.
