Louis Smolka faces a must-win fight on Saturday at UFC 219, as he takes on Matheus Nicolau. Smolka has lost his last three UFC bouts and rarely does a fighter lose four straight and not get cut. Nicolau is 12-1-1 overall and unbeaten in the UFC at 2-0. This fight is one of four on the FS1 portion of the preliminary card, leading up to a four-fight main pay-per-view card featuring Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm. Let’s look at the bout between Nicolau and Smolka, UFC 219 odds and picks.
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Matheus Nicolau (12-1-1, 2-0 UFC)
Nicolau has been very impressive in his career, losing just once and he is unbeaten in the UFC. He defeated Bruno Mesquita in November of 2015 and he won a split decision against John Moraga in July of 2016. Eight of the 12 wins by Nicolau have been finishes, as he has four knockouts and four submissions. He has finished three of his opponents in the first round.
Nicolau has been out of action due to a drug suspension, although Nicolau still denies any wrongdoing. He said to MMAjunkie that he did not stop working during the suspension. “It wasn’t time off – I kept working every day,” Nicolau said. “I woke up and went to bed thinking about it. Not a day went by that I didn’t think about my career. And I never stopped working toward my evolution as a mixed martial artist.”
Nicolau said he is well aware that Smolka is facing a must-win situation to avoid getting cut by the UFC. “Regardless of how he comes in to fight me, I’m certain that, if I’m able to stay calm and focused, I’ll be prepared to answer whatever danger he brings into the fight.” Nicolau said.
Louis Smolka (11-4, 5-4 UFC)
After losing three straight fights, Smolka knew he had to do something different so he has changed his drinking habits. “I’ve stopped drinking for this camp,” Smolka told MMAWeekly.com. “That’s kind of a big thing.” Five of the last nine Smolka fights have gone to a decision.
Smolka also said that he has been working on his takedown defense. “I worked on my takedown defense a bit,” said Smolka. “Stopping the takedown has been a major issue with my game. People like to just shoot in and score points, so I have to deal with that. Hopefully I’ll be able to stop a few.”
UFC Picks
On paper this is really a fight that Nicolau should win, but the price makes taking him a little risky. There is also the factor of Smolka fighting to stay in the UFC and there is nothing like motivation to spur a fighter on to a great effort. I still lean toward Nicolau in this fight but the price is too high for me. I think this fight will end up being a back and forth bout that ends up going the distance, so I will take the rounds to go over the total of 2.5.
UFC 219 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, December 30 with the feature bout a matchup between Cris Cyborg and Holly Holm. There are four fights on the main pay-per-view card and six on the preliminary card, with four on FS1 and two on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (pay-per-view)
Cris Cyborg -375 vs. Holly Holm (rounds 1.5 over -265)
Khabib Nurmagomedov -280 vs. Edson Barboza (rounds 2.5 over -120)
Cynthia Calvillo -250 vs. Carla Esparza (rounds 2.5 over -216)
Carlos Condit -160 vs. Neil Magny (rounds 2.5 over -145)
Preliminary Card (FS1)
Khalil Rountree -292 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (rounds 1.5 under -205)
Marc Diakiese -191 vs. Dan Hooker (rounds 2.5 over -175)
Myles Jury -206 vs. Rick Glenn (rounds 2.5 over -216)
Matheus Nicolau -250 vs. Louis Smolka (rounds 2.5 over -215)
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Marvin Vettori -225 vs. Omari Akhmedov (rounds 2.5 over -130)
Tim Elliott -222 vs. Mark De La Rosa (rounds 2.5 over -215)
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