Former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (22-5, 7 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet undefeated Brian Ortega (13-0, 2 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC 222 on Saturday, March 3, 2018 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and get the latest previews, predictions and picks now.
God bless Frankie Edgar. Instead of sitting on the sidelines and waiting for his title shot against Max Holloway - which was probably what 99% of fighters would have done - the former lightweight champ is electing to stay on this Saturday’s UFC 222 card in Las Vegas. Not only is he risking his guaranteed title shot, he’s meeting arguably the hottest fighter in the division, the undefeated Brian Ortega.
Cruising the messageboards, I’ve seen a lot of fan love for Edgar for being a “real” fighter. It’s hard not to agree, especially when you’ve got guys like Tyron Woodley who sat out for a year and a half to get his chance at the strap. Let’s not forget how much more a fighter stands to make not only in a title fight, but in sponsorship opportunities as the champion. But Edgar has always been a competitor, and in his own words, he “was sick of not fighting”.
So we’ve got one of the division’s most experienced scrappers meeting one of it’s most dangerous BJJ players. How should you bet this fight? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the matchup and go over your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Brian Ortega +170
Frankie Edgar -215
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision -230/+170
Odds Analysis
Edgar opened as more than a 2-1 favorite, and his money line has hovered around the -200 to -215 range. Ortega can be found anywhere from +150 to +170. Oddsmakers are giving Edgar a ton of respect, despite Ortega stealing the show with a beastly win over Cub Swanson in his last outing.
I’d expect a flood of late bets on Ortega, as his potential is too tantalizing to ignore. It’s impossible not to think you’re looking at a future champion when you watch him fight. Although Edgar is by far the best opponent’s he’s faced, “The Answer” is also 36 and a bit past his prime.
Matchup Analysis
There’s a noticeable size difference between the two. Though Edgar is a former lightweight, he’s a small enough 145er that there’s been rumblings of him dropping down to bantamweight. In contrast, Ortega is a massive featherweight who has to cut serious pounds to make the limit. Against Swanson, who is by no means small, Ortega looked like he was in a different weight class.
But Frankie’s made a career out of beating bigger dudes. His skillset is exceptionally well-rounded, and it starts with elite footwork and wrestling. On the feet, Frankie is in perpetual motion, moving in and out, side to side, into range and sliding out while peppering opponents with head-body punching combinations. The guy wouldn’t be out of place inside a squared circle.
While he’s never been able to overpower guys with his wrestling, Edgar’s takedown timing is second to none, often catching foes by surprise as he explodes for doubles. On top, he’s a lot heavier than you’d expect him to be - he glues himself to you and rarely do you see any space between his body and his opponent’s.
But will he even risk wrestling against Ortega? Despite a lengthy UFC career, Edgar has never met as anyone as dangerous as T-City on the mat. The strength and speed at which Ortega finds submission is every bit as quick and lethal as a Ngannou uppercut. After getting tagged up by Cub Swanson for an entire round, Ortega caught a hold of the neck and had Cub - as experienced as they come - tapping frantically like an amateur.
UFC Betting TIps
Edgar has to make a mistake for Ortega to win. In terms of experience and all-around skill, Edgar clearly has the advantage over a guy that’s still growing inside the cage. You have to also consider that this is a three-round fight and not a five-round main event.
UFC Odds Pick: Small bet on Edgar to win at -184
We’re leaning slightly towards Edgar to come out with a decision, but Ortega sure is scary. It’d be nice to see The Answer’s line to come down to around -175.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision at -230
Edgar isn’t a finisher, and it takes a cruise missile to put the guy out. His defensive wrestling should be able to hold off Ortega’s submissions, at least for three rounds.
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UFC 222 takes place on Saturday, March 3, 2018 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
