Former strawweight title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2, 1 KO, 2 SUBs) will meet the surging Felice Herrig (14-6, 1 KO, 4 SUBs) at UFC 223 on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims. Get the latest UFC odds and get previews, predictions and betting picks at BookMaker.eu now.
Sh*t just got real for Felice Herrig. The veteran women’s strawweight was never expected to be a real contender at 115 pounds, but an impressive four-fight winning streak has put her in a matchup with Karolina Kowalkiewicz - the No. 4 contender in the division. It’s a pretty sweet comeback story for “Lil Bulldog”, who took a year off to get her mind right after a disheartening loss to Paige VanZant.
But does she have what it takes to take out Kowalkiewicz? The Polish striker’s only losses have come against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha, and she even has a win over current champion Rose Namajunas. While she might not be a physically overwhelming fighter, KK is definitely one of the elites.
Unsurprisingly, Kowalkiewicz is a sizeable favorite coming into the matchup. But is her price still playable, or should you be taking a chance on Herrig? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Felice Herrig +160
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -195
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -350, under +290
Matchup Preview
Both fighters are more comfortable on the feet, setting up a likely kickboxing match. Despite her background in European kickboxing competitions, Kowalkiewicz is rather unorthodox with her strikes. Lacking the crisp technique of J-Check or the power of Claudia Gadelha, Kowalkiewicz uses off-beat rhythms to launch punch-kick combinations.
An extremely well-conditioned fighter, Karolina maintains an extremely high pace, landing 5.17 punches per minute. Considering her accuracy is only 36.05% of her strikes, the number of attempts she throws is sky high.
Where Karolina does her best work is in the clinch. Anybody who saw her wreck Thug Rose with just the plum and the knees knows how much damage she can do. Whether she’s clinching in space or against the fence, KK will crack her opponents punches, elbows and knees.
The most impressive thing about Herrig’s four-fight winning streak has been her IQ. Against Alexa Grasso, she poured on the striking volume against an opponent who has been known to lack output. Against Justine Kish, she used her wrestling whenever Kish tried to kickbox. Herrig has evolved inside the UFC, hitting her competitive stride and transforming into a hardened vet.
Does Herrig have the tools to be a title contender? Yes, but she will have to find another gear. Herrig is not a great athlete, her hand and foot speed aren’t great, and seems to win fights with rugged determination rather than talent. Then again, you can sorta say the same things about Kowalkiewicz as well.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -350
This is the safest pick of the fight. Neither Herrig nor Kowalkiewicz are finishers, Herrig has never been finished and Kowalkiewicz has only been stopped once. The price here is too expensive to be anything more than a parlay booster, but it’s pretty much a sure thing.
UFC Odds Pick: Kowalkiewicz to win at -195
This is juuuust low enough to be a straight play, and it’s a relatively safe one. Herrig won’t be able to get Kowalkiewicz to the ground, and in a kickboxing match KK does everything just a bit better. If Herrig was closer to +200, we’d recommend a small play as there is potential for an upset, but the current price isn’t worth the risk right now. Keep an eye Herrig’s price on fight night to see if there’s a dramatic swing.
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UFC 223 takes place on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims.
