Former flyweight title challenger Ray Borg (11-3, 1 KO, 6 SUBs) will meet No. 7 Brandon Moreno (14-4, 1 KO, 10 SUBs) at UFC 223 on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims. Get the latest UFC odds and get previews, predictions and betting picks now.
Two young flyweight studs will collide on the FS1 prelims of UFC 223. Ray Borg and Brandon Moreno and both 24 years old and brimming with potential, making this an important fight at 125 pounds. While Borg is coming off a failed title shot, he did a lot better than most expected him to against the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Moreno recently lost a tough unanimous decision to Sergio pettis, but that was his first loss in 11 fights.
Stylewise, this is a sweet clash of two elite submission guys - so fans of grappling are in for a treat. At stake is a spot in the top five: Borg is currently ranked No. 3 while Moreno is No. 7 overall. This is Moreno’s shot to enter the title picture.
So which prospect should you be backing here? There’s a big favorite in this matchup, but that means there are opportunities to get a very good payout on the underdog. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the matchup, along with your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ray Borg -260
Brandon Moreno +210
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision -215/+170
Coming Into the Scrap
While there are a few spots between them in the rankings, their resumes are about the same. Borg has been in the UFC longer, allowing him to pick up more wins in the octagon. But his biggest wins are against Louis Smolka and Jussier da Silva. Besides the loss to Mighty Mouse, Borg has dropped decisions to Dustin Ortiz and Justin Scoggins.
Conversely, Moreno beat Dustin Ortiz via RNC and also has a win over Louis Smolka. The loss to Pettis hurt, but “The Assassin Baby” can still hold his head up with a 3-1 octagon record. The Mexican fighter is a lowkey fan favorite for consistently going for high-risk subs. Let’s hope he does the same against a grappler of Borg’s caliber.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Borg 1.31 / Moreno 2.54
Accuracy: Borg 48.06% / Moreno 2.54
Absorbed per minute: Borg 1.92 / Moreno 2.37
Defense: Borg 47.34% / 69.58%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Borg 2.91 / Moreno 2.91
Takedown accuracy: Borg 44% / Moreno 45.45%
Takedowns defended: Borg 39.13% / Moreno 61.54%
Submission average: Borg 1.45 / Moreno 1.7
UFC Odds Pick: Moreno at +215
To be honest, Borg should be a significant favorite here, but this is a good opportunity for bettors to get very good price on a real upset threat. Moreno is the more dynamic striker, and his takedown defense is solid as well. Borg is a fantastic fighter, but by no means is this going to be an easy fight for him. Moreno should have full confidence in his grappling should this go to the ground, and he could very well steal enough rounds with his output.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision -215
If you’re not comfortable picking a winner, or just feel like Borg’s price is too expensive to justify a straight bet, the decision prop bet is slight cheaper and pays out nearly a 50% return on investment. When it comes to top-level flyweights, late finishes and decisions are the safe bet - they generally don’t have huge knockout power and good cardio makes submissions from fatigue less likely.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
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UFC 223 takes place on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims.
