Undefeated blue chip prospect Alexa Grasso made good in her UFC debut against Heather Clark. This Saturday, she’ll take a step up in competition against respected veteran Felice Herrig. The matchup is a litmus test for the rising Mexican star, who many expect to be a contender by the year’s end.
Let’s take a look at your UFC betting odds and break down a highly entertaining scrap.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Alexa Grasso -280
Felice Herrig +230
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -220, under +180
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are updated daily.
How Grasso Wins
Though Grasso is just 23 years old, she is poised beyond her years inside the cage. Usually, young fighters with her potential will rely too much on raw ability and emotion, but the Lobo Gym product stays remarkably composed whether she’s on the attack or having her defense tested.
Physically, Grasso is gifted good athleticism and natural hand speed. A natural striker, the Mexican prospect already possesses crisp, technical hands - her jab is already one of the best in the division. In the clinch, Grasso has a talent for landing opportune knees to the midsection and changing levels for takedowns.
Herrig is a better version of Grasso’s last opponent, Heather Jo Clark. She is a game opponent, but Grasso simply is more gifted physically and already has a sharper tool set in more key MMA phases. Grasso just needs to play her game and she should be fine.
How Herrig Wins
After losing to Paige VanZant in April 2015, Herrig took some time off to get her mind right. The hiatus appears to have helped immensely, as she returned at UFC on FOX 20 and notched a first-round submission win over Kailin Curran.
Though Herrig was physically overwhelmed by PVZ, Grasso is a vastly different fighter. “Lil’ Bulldog” should have some space to work her Muay Thai, and she has a plus jab that might give her opponent pause. If she can keep the distance, Herrig’s punch-kick combinations could play a factor as well.
If she finds herself in trouble at distance - highly plausible considering Grasso’s own kickboxing skills - Herrig can outmuscle the younger fighter in the clinch. Herrig is especially good with enemies pressed into the cage, where she can stay active with knees and elbows.
Breakdown and Betting Value
While Herrig is solid in the areas where Grasso is strongest, she is not a very good athlete nor does she have the snap to her strikes necessary to hurt her opponents quickly. Defensively, she is hittable at close range, which is a huge weakness against a sniper like Grasso. Still, Herrig is game enough to make it to the final bell, though she will take a lot of punishment along the way.
UFC odds pick: Grasso UD Herrig
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UFC Fight Night 104 takes place on Saturday, February 4, 2017 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
