Ovince St. Preux has found wins hard to come by lately, going just 1-3 in his past four. But this Saturday marks an excellent opportunity for a win as he faces injury replacement Volkan Oezdemir. For the No. 6-ranked OSP, a loss to the UFC rookie would be disastrous, as he’d be seen as nothing more than a fringe contender at best.
Let’s take a look at your UFC betting odds and break down this 205-pound tilt.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Ovince St. Preux -275
Volkan Oezdemir +230
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -110, under -110
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are updated daily.
How Ovince St. Preux Wins
It was a bit puzzling how bad the former Tennessee Vol linebacker looked in his last fight. Against Jimi Manuwa, OSP looked hesitant to engage and even worse, appeared gassed after just one round. For a man that had previously gone five rounds with Jon Jones, St. Preux totally devolved in just one fight.
Perhaps it was his respect for Manuwa’s power punching, or maybe he was injured. But to have any faith in OSP, we have to assume that it was just a really off-night for the man. Because the St. Preux that rose to the top-6 is actually a very dangerous fighter. His natural power, athleticism and massive size makes him a factor against anyone in the division.
Against Oezdemir, St. Preux can utilize his size advantage, especially in the clinch. He will be the bigger, heavier man in the cage and usually doesn’t have a problem reinforcing it. Oezdemir is a striker first, giving OSP an easy blueprint to follow if he takes this to the ground.
How Oezdemir Wins
When it comes to striking, the Swiss fighter has obvious knockout power. With a career record of 12-1, Oezdmir boasts nine knockouts to his credit. While most of his work was on the regional circuit, he does have two fights in Bellator - one of which resulted in his only career loss.
To beat OSP, Oezdemir must start fast and try and surprise OSP. The longer the fight goes, the more likely his short time training becomes a factor. There probably isn’t that much tape for team OSP to study either, so fighting unpredictably from the onset will benefit him.
Most importantly, Oezdemir has to keep the fight standing. It’s a tough ask for somebody against a much bigger man, but Oezdemir cannot afford to spend entire rounds on his back.
Breaking Down the Betting Options
The UFC cannot afford to have viable contenders falling out of the light heavyweight division - it’s thinning at an alarmingly quick rate.
It seems as if they’ve given OSP an extremely favorable matchup to get him back in the win column, as the big man holds all the physical advantages in this scrap. This is his fight to lose. I’m betting that we’ll see St. Preux find his groove against an overmatched opponent, fight aggressive and score a knockout.
UFC odds pick: St. Preux SUB Oezdemir, R1
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UFC Fight Night 104 takes place on Saturday, February 4, 2017 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
