Some Fight Nights are meh. This Saturday’s card in Houston is anything but. In fact, I’d argue that it’s just as good as some of the UFC on FOX offerings we had in the past, and it’s a helluva lot tastier than anything on UFC Fight Pass. With stars, prospects and contenders lining the main event, it’s definitely worthy of your time and betting dollars.
Let’s take a look at the night’s notable fight and dictate some common sense for your UFC betting picks.
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Main Event
Featherweight
Chan Sung Jung +160
Dennis Bermudez -185
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -200, under +170
Common Sense Says...
There are a lot of questions surrounding Zombie’s return. Too many to risk a big amount. He hasn’t fought in two years, and while his body may have healed up, how much training time could he put in while serving his South Korean army duties? This division has rapidly evolved during his time away - McGregor wasn’t a star, Holloway was still a prospect, and Aldo was still unbeatable.
There’s also the fact that Bermudez is the best offensive wrestler that Jung has faced. Jung is a dangerous striker and submission artist, but he’s never really fought a guy that has the ability to take opponents down and pound them to dust.
UFC odds pick: Bermudez to win -185
Women’s Strawweight
Alexa Grasso -285
Felice Herrig +235
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -220, under +235
Common Sense Says..
Herrig is another stepping stone fight for a blue chip prospect projected to become a title contender by the end of this year. In terms of physical talent and skill, Grasso can and is the clear favorite. “Lil’ Bulldog” might be pretty good at Muay Thai, but Grasso is already a technical ace in terms of striking.
Grasso cruised in her UFC debut against Heather Jo Clark, and Herrig is a slightly better version of Clark. She’s not particularly athletic, doesn’t hit hard, and is hittable in exchanges. This should be a relatively easy night for Grasso.
UFC odds pick: Parlay Grasso to win at -285
Light Heavyweight
Ovince St. Preux -275
Volkan Oezdemir +230
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -110, under -110
Common Sense Says…
This is a get-right fight for Ovince St. Preux. He’s 1-3 in his past four, but we can overlook the losses to Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and even Jimi Manuwa as those dudes are a top tier light heavyweights. OSP is a guy the UFC saw fit to fight for a light heavyweight title. Oezdemir is making his UFC debut.
St. Preux is the bigger, stronger fighter and is facing an opponent who is stepping in on late notice. While Oezdemir has some pop to his punches, there’s just no way he’s not gonna get muscled arround by OSP.
UFC odds pick: OSP to win at -275
Women’s Strawweight
Angela Hill +360
Jessica Andrade -455
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over +125, under -145
Common Sense Says…
Jessica Andrade has looked like a mini-Wanderlei Silva since moving down to strawweight from 135 pounds. She tore up former title challenger Jessica Penne and ragdolled the respected JoJo Calderwood, scoring two impressive finishes. This girl is just a fight or two away from a title eliminator at the very least.
Angela Hill was cut from the UFC, only to win four straight in Invicta FC and claim the title in the women’s promotion. She’s feisty, but her skinny frame let’s her be bullied by physically stronger fighters. If Andrade can body slam Calderwood into fine powder, she can do the same to Hill.
UFC odds pick: Andrade to win at -455
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UFC Fight Night 104 takes place on Saturday, February 4, 2017 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
