Heavyweight Derrick Lewis has won five straight fights, four by KO, bulldozing his way into the heavyweight top 10. This Sunday, we’ll find out if he’s ready to challenge the division’s upper tier. “The Black Beast” meets Travis Browne, a veteran with far more significant UFC fights on his resume, having faced men like Alistair Overeem, Fabricio Werdum, Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez.
Let’s take a look at your UFC betting odds at BookMaker.eu along with a breakdown of the fight.
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Heavyweight
Travis Browne -106
Derrick Lewis -115
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -105, under -115
How Derrick Lewis Wins
There’s really only one way Lewis approaches any bout: the guy is an old-school headhunter and little else. Normally, such one-dimensional fighters are quickly exposed by more well-rounded fighters, but The Black Beast has somehow managed to thrive in spite of his limited skill set.
Browne isn’t really the type of fighter who can attack Lewis on the ground - where he is most vulnerable. This gives Lewis a great shot of landing one of his concussive fists, especially over the course of a five-round fight. Lewis has proven himself durable, so he should be able to take a few hits while closing the distance.
Also, Browne’s once-dynamic offense has dramatically regressed under the tutelage of Edmond Tarverdyan. Gone are the creative kicks that made the best use of his 6’7” frame, replaced with a more predictable boxing attack. Not having to worry about the kicks should give Lewis further openings launch bombs.
How Travis Browne Wins
He could go back to Jackson-Wink, where he found the most success. But since he’s fully committed to staying at the same camp as his girlfriend Ronda Rousey, we must explore how he can utilize his current preferred MO to beat Lewis.
Against almost any other heavyweight, Browne has a height and reach advantage. In this case, is four inches taller than Lewis. Given Lewis’ penchants for interior brawling, it’s obvious that Browne must control the range and keeps the shorter fight at punching distance. To do that, “Hapa” must remember he is the more agile fighter and keep circling away from Lewis’ charges.
Browne can also test Lewis’ cardio, which is obviously a real liability. Lewis is a far slower fighter by the third round, and much easier to pick apart. Browne has never really had conditioning problems, so he should make it a priority to take this fight into deep waters.
The Betting Breakdown
Though Browne is going through the worst slump of his career, all of his recent losses have come against former champions. Lewis’ quick rise is likely more due to a thin heavyweight division rather than his actual potential, and it’s highly doubtful he’ll see success against upper tier fighters. Though Browne is ranked below Lewis, he is a step above the competition that Lewis has been facing. Lewis’ unlikely title run will end here, after Browne picks him apart for a few rounds.
UFC odds pick: Browne TKO Lewis, R3
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UFC Fight Night 105 takes place on Sunday, February 19 at the Scotiabank Centre in Nova Scotia, Canada. The card airs on FS1.
