After a consistent string of weight-cutting issues, former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks will finally move up to 185 pounds. Mired in a three-fight losing streak, “Bigg Rigg” will attempt to revive his slumping career against the dangerous Hector Lombard, who is looking to avoid his third straight loss.
It’s an important scrap for both men, as each is attempting to stay relevant in a highly competitive division. Let’s break down your UFC betting odds at BookMaker.eu and lead you towards a winning pick.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks +123
Hector Lombard -143
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are updated daily.
How Lombard Wins
Each of “Showeather’s” back-to-back losses followed the same pattern: the 38-year old would launch a brutal first-round assault, exhaust every single clip in his chamber, then have nothing left for the following rounds.
Obviously, he’s got to learn how to conserve his energy. His flurries are among the most dangerous in the sport, but at 38 years old they are no longer a sure bet to finish upper echelon UFC fighters. Even if he cracks Hendricks, Lombard must exercise sound judgement on whether to go in for the kill or not.
With his Olympic judo background, Lombard can stay upright against even the best of wrestlers. On the feet, he will have a speed advantage over Hendricks, leading to plenty of opportunities for controlled bursts of violence. A few successful flurries is all he needs to sway the fight in his favor.
How Hendricks Wins
Against Neil Magny, Hendricks went back to his wrestling and spent much of the matchup in top control. It was a lack of activity from the top position led to a decision loss that many disagreed with. However, it was still a good sign from Hendricks, who had seemed to become overly reliant on his powerful left hand.
If the move to middleweight expands Hendricks’ gas tank, we could see the “old” Johny Hendricks - the man who successfully blended nuclear power punches with the wrestling of an NCAA wrestling champion. A Hendricks that is firing on all cylinders, with dirty boxing in the clinch and authoritative takedowns, is far too physical for a poorly conditioned Lombard.
Hendricks’ last few fights suggests he’s past his prime, but he’s still just 33 years old and five years younger than Lombard. The sum of Hendricks’ MMA skill is greater than his opponent’s - he just has to put it all together.
The Betting Breakdown
Tough call here, especially since Hendricks has not looked good in recent fights. But there are two key reasons why you should feel confident with him. First, not having to go through a grueling weight cut should energize the former champ. Second, his renewed commitment to wrestling against Magny is a good sign that he’s focusing on his strongest skillset.
Lombard is an extremely dangerous fighter, but his barely-there cardio and one-dimensional headhunting approach makes him a target for more well-rounded fighters.
UFC odds pick: Hendricks UD Lombard
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UFC Fight Night 105 takes place on Sunday, February 19 at the Scotiabank Centre in Nova Scotia, Canada. The card airs on FS1.
