UFC Fight Night 106 takes place on Saturday, March 11, 2017 at the Centro de Formacao in Forteleza, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1. Middleweight contenders Kelvin Gastelum and Vitor Belfort will meet in the main event. Bet on the latest UFC Fight Night 106 odds at BookMaker.eu now.
There is never a shortage of recognizable names or talented fighters whenever the UFC heads to Brazil. The talent pool representing the South American country is enormous, making it easy to put together great cards filled with natives. This Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 109 in Brazil is no exception, with former champions, title contenders and established veterans alike.
Let’s take a look at your UFC betting options at BookMaker.eu and make a few common sense quick picks for fight night.
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Main Event
Middleweight
Vitor Belfort -375
Kelvin Gastelum +305
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +135, under -155
Common Sense Says…
At 39 years old, the post-TRT Belfort only wins in one fashion: via violent first-round outburst. While he’s still dangerous, he’s never been more one-dimensional - and opponents know it. The potential for a quick KO is always there, but he’s facing a dude who’s never been KO’d.
Gastelum has a few clear paths to victory here. A strong wrestler, he could take down a man that’s 15 years his elder and pound him out a la Weidman or Jacare Souza. Or he could choose to use his superb boxing skills and slug Belfort into submission if he’s willing to test his chin. All Belfort’s got is a puncher’s chance.
How You Should Bet
There’s a reason why Gastelum’s money line is so expensive. The over/under offers a better payout, but it’s a much tougher decision - Belfort’s fights end quickly, but Gastelum’s usually don’t. The best play here is to parlay Gastelum’s money line to win.
UFC odds pick: Parlay Gastelum to win at +305
Co-Main Event
Lightweight
Edson Barboza -170
Beneil Dariush +145
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -170, under +150
Common Sense Says…
In terms of pure talent, Barboza easily outpaces Dariush. The Brazilian’s athleticism and striking prowess has carried him into the title mix in a deep division. And his nasty leg kicks are quickly becoming one of the promotion’s signature weapons - and Barboza has embraced his role as a destroyer of leg tissue.
But Dariush is a tough, tough out for anyone at 155. Underrated and underappreciated, the American is the type of fighter that makes every scrap a gritty encounter that could go either way. It’s easy to look at this matchup and overlook Beneil, but that would be a huge mistake.
How You Should Bet
As long as Barboza is landing his leg kicks, he should get the win. His line isn’t too pricey at -170, but if Dariush’s money line rises to anywhere close to +200 he warrants a small play. The over on 2.5 rounds is also -170, and it hedges against an unexpected upset as well.
UFC odds pick: Over 2.5 rounds -170
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua -140
Gian Villante +120
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -160, under +135
Common Sense Says…
It’s been nearly a year since we’ve seen “Shogun” inside the cage, taking his time to heal his body from minor dings and dents. What we do know is that we can’t expect the same killer from Pride anymore, as the recent version of Shogun is one that’s susceptible to quick knockouts and sloppy brawls.
But the UFC is giving the Brazilian star a beatable opponent in his native country. Gian Villante is a midlevel slugger the promotion usually throws onto the prelims to get the crowd riled up. He’s played the part well, with four of his last five ending in TKO stoppages.
How You Should Bet
Tough call here. Shogun is easily the better overall fighter, but he’s not fighting at a high level anymore. Still, he’s got enough skills to overcome a limited opponent like Villante - but don’t be surprised if this is a lot closer than you think.
UFC odds pick: Shogun to win at -140
Quick Hits
Alex Oliveira +195 vs. Tim Means -230
Francisco Trinaldo +130 vs. Kevin Lee -150
Oliveira and Means get to run it back after their first go-round was stopped in the opening frame and ruled a no-contest. Oliveira is the quicker, slicker striker but he’s dealing with a gritty KO artist that’s four inches taller. Means will likely outlast him here.
UFC odds pick: Means to win at -230
38-year old Francisco Trinaldo has won seven straight at 155 and is getting harder to ignore. He faces the 24-year old Motown Phenom in a prospect bout. At some point Trinaldo’s Cinderella run is going to end. Lee has the wrestling skillset to make it happen.
UFC odds pick: Lee to win at -150
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UFC Fight Night 106 takes place on Saturday, March 11, 2017 at the Centro de Formacao in Forteleza, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1.
