Former light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort (25-13, 18 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet rising middleweight contender Kelvin Gastelum (13-2, 5 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 106 on Saturday, March 11, 2017 at the Centro de Formacao in Forteleza, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now!
After multiple issues making 170 pounds, Kelvin Gastelum might have found a new home at middleweight. In his last outing - his first at 185 pounds - Gastelum looked lethally spry in dispatching the well-regarded Tim Kennedy. This Saturday, the 25-year old will look to further climb the rankings against former title challenger Vitor Belfort.
It’s a matchup with a potential for fireworks, as both men have vicious power in their hands. Let’s take a look at your UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and surmise your best bet to make some money.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Middleweight
Vitor Belfort -375
Kelvin Gastelum +305
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +135, under -155
The Case for Belfort
At 39 years old, it’s getting harder and harder to make any arguments for Belfort with each passing fight. He’s certainly not getting any help from UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby, as the Brazilian has had to face killers like Gegard Mousasi, Ronaldo Souza and Chris Weidman in three of his past four fights.
While Belfort’s gas tank is shot and his strength has waned since the UFC ban of TRT, he still has his extraordinary hand speed. It’s been his defining trait since he made his MMA debut more than two decades ago, and it gives him more than just a puncher’s chance in any fight.
Beyond his hands, Belfort is a longtime BJJ black belt, though it’s been more than five years since he’s submitted anyone. But the skillset is still there if needed, and he is capable of quickly snatching limbs and chokes - like when he nearly upset the great Jon Jones with a airtight armbar just minutes into their fight.
The Case for Gastelum
Where to begin? Gastelum is just 25, 14 years the junior of his opponent. He possesses all the physical advantages of youth - speed, strength, cardio and durability. Against a fighter with no more than one good round in him, you could argue that being the fresher fighter is almost all Gastelum needs.
But the young stud possesses far more than just fresh legs. The kid is a dangerous boxer-wrestler, and while his KO ratio isn’t high, he hits hard. He’s quick and fluid with his combinations, able to dish out damage in a hurry. The larger Tim Kennedy could not hold up against his pressure, and Johny Hendricks was beaten to the punch for three rounds.
While Gastelum hasn’t had to utilize his offensive wrestling as of late, he does have good takedowns when he commits. His natural strength and compact stature gives him good leverage on double-legs, and he can chain wrestle against the fence. Belfort’s takedown defense has been abysmal as of late, though some of that has to do with the fact he’s been facing some great wrestlers.
How You Should Bet
The best value here lies in the over/under - Gastelum is far too expensive to warrant anything but a parlay with his money line. That being said, Gastelum is not one to finish fights early - his last three fights have gone well into the final round. But Belfort’s last seven fights have ended before the 1.5 round mark, making an early finish seem likely.
UFC odds pick: Under 1.5 rounds -155
Bet on UFC Fight Night 106 odds now
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UFC Fight Night 106 takes place on Saturday, March 11, 2017 at the Centro de Formacao in Forteleza, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1.
