Some of Europe’s best fighters brightest prospects will take center stage this Sunday at UFC Fight Night 109 in Stockholm. In the main event, Alexander Gustafsson will seek redemption from a humiliating loss against Anthony Johnson in his hometown in a matchup with bruiser Glover Teixeira. It’s a pivotal matchup in the light heavyweight division, as both men are fighting to keep their place atop the rankings.
In the same division, Volkan Oezdemir will look to build on a shocking upset win over Ovince St. Preux in his UFC debut in a clash with prospect Misha Cirkunov. The rest of the card is filled with solid vets and up-and-comers.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and make a few common sense picks for some of the night’s notable scraps.
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Main Event
Light Heavyweight
Alexander Gustafsson -340
Glover Teixeira +270
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -120, under -110
Common Sense Says…
Gustafsson has all the advantages in this matchup except when it comes to knockout power. While Teixeira’s killshot ability is a great equalizer, his money line isn’t quite good enough to tempt a bet.
It’s easy to remember how badly the Swede was beaten by Anthony Johnson, but the reality is that he never lost consciousness nor has he ever been knocked out. Glover’s punches don’t have the same finality, so Gus should be able to weather any storm and ride his quickness and movement to a win.
But since “The Mauler’s” line is expensive at -340, look towards the over on 2.5 rounds. It’s not a high round total, and it’s difficult to finish either guy. If you want to gamble, Teixeira’s underdog odds at +270 isn’t a bad play - it’s gone up a ton in recent weeks.
UFC odds pick: Over 2.5 rounds -120
Co-Main Event
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir +325
Misha Cirkunov -400
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -110, under -110
Common Sense Says…
Oezdemir is no doubt talented, but he might have benefitted from facing an OSP that was in a real funk. The Swiss product is a good striker with concussive power, but Cirkunov is a bad matchup for him. The Latvian might not be very fluid when it comes to throwing leather, but he is extremely poised and applies pressure well.
What makes Cirkunov one of the best prospects at 205 is ability to take opponents down and crush them with brutal GNP. Expect Oezdemir to spend much of this fight on his back fighting off submission attempts and painful blows.
UFC odds pick: Cirkunov to win at -400
Welterweight
Peter Sobotta -125
Ben Saunders -105
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -165, under +145
Common Sense Says…
Saunders is a well-known gatekeeper - a solid vet without any real weaknesses or dominating strengths. He is experienced enough to be comfortable in any MMA phase, and if his foe is lacking in any department, Saunders is smart enough to exploit that flaw.
Though Sobotta is 3-1, he is somewhat one-dimensional as a grappler with plus submission ability. He might have a tough time getting this fight to the ground, so don’t be surprised if he ends up getting picked apart by Saunders on the feet.
UFC odds pick: Saunders to win at -105
Welterweight
Abdul Razak Alhassan -250
Omari Akhmedov +200
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +145, under -165
Common Sense Says…
Alhassan is 7-0, with seven first-round KOs. That includes his UFC debut in November 2016, where he flatlined Charlie Ward in under a minute. Obviously, the man is a gifted striker with dynamite in his fists.
The American is taking a step up in competition against Omari Akhmedov, who is the type of tough, gritty fighter that won’t be easy to put away. If he can make this fight ugly, Alhassan might be forced to showcase his full MMA repertoire - which is a complete question mark.
If Akhmedov can show patience and impose his sambo skills, he could put Alhassan into deep waters where he might not be comfortable. Then again, he has been KO’d twice in his last three fights - which bodes well for an explosive fighter like Alhassan.
UFC odds pick: Alhassan to win at -250
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UFC Fight Night 109 - Gustafsson vs. Teixeira takes place on Sunday, May 28 in Stockholm, Sweden. The card airs on FS1 starting 1 p.m. ET.
