With Miesha Tate retired and no table for Ronda Rousey’s return, former women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm is the division’s biggest star. However, her popularity might not survive a fourth straight loss, which is what’s at stake when she meets former title challenger Bethe Correia in the main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 111.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds, break down the fight and make the best value pick in the sportsbook.
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Bethe Correia +449
Holly Holm -745
Over 4.5 rounds, over -130, under +110
Odds Analysis
Despite her recent slump, Holm is a massive favorite in the sportsbook. Correia hasn’t been too hot either, going 1-2-1 in her past four. But these money lines are more about the matchup then their recent history - this is a bout that favors Holm in a myriad of ways.
The over/under for this five-round main event is 4.5 rounds - the highest possible round total. Oddsmakers are favoring this event to go the distance, with the over at -145.
The Case for Correia
She prefers to strike, and Holm will oblige her in kickboxing match. This is where the Brazilian is strongest, when she can bully opponents with pressure and punch-kick combinations. Unfortunately for Correia, she is neither fast nor explosive, so it’s very difficult for her to dominate fights.
Correia is a gutsy fighter, and her durability under fire might be her greatest strength. In her last outing against Marion Reneau, Correia got lit up and found herself on the ropes - yet she recovered and fought back to a draw. If she can close the distance and make this an ugly fight, Correia’s chances greatly increase.
The Case for Holm
Holm is the physically superior specimen. She is four inches taller, has a longer reach and moves far better around the cage. Her footwork, honed by years of boxing experience, remains among the best in the division.
Her best weapon is her round kick, and she is fantastic at hiding it behind punches. This is the same strike that shattered the aura of Ronda Rousey and granted “The Preacher’s Daughter” stardom. It’s so powerful that she’s ended two fights by body kick and three by head kick.
Against Correia, Holm simply needs to apply her signature stick-and-move style to win. The Brazilian isn’t quick enough to catch her or strong enough to neutralize Holm’s speed advantage. As long as Holm avoids standing-and-trading with Correia, this is her fight to lose.
How You Should Bet
The UFC odds show Holm as more than a 7-1 favorite for good reason. This is a bounceback fight and gifted opponent to make sure Holm stays relevant as a star. You best bets here are to use Holm’s money line as part of a parlay, or to go with the over. Correia is tough, having only been knocked out once, while Holm probably won’t be super aggressive a trip back to the win column.
UFC odds pick: Parlay Holm to win at -745
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UFC Fight Night 111 takes place on Saturday, June 17 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Singapore. The fight airs live on UFC Fight Pass.
