Casual fans might have completely overlooked the main event matchup between Michael Chiesa and Kevin Lee - neither man is relatively well-known. But the pair injected some buzz into their matchup when they nearly came to blows at a recent UFC press conference. The resulting footage made ESPN highlights, and now there is genuine interest in a manufactured grudge match.
Which is a good thing, because this is a great matchup with high stakes. Chiesa is the No. 7 ranked fighter in the division, while Lee is steadily rising at No. 12. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your betting options.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Kevin Lee -135
Michael Chiesa +105
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -110, under -110
Please note, UFC odds are updated daily.
Matchup Breakdown
Chiesa is an elite submission grappler, while Lee is an excellent wrestler. If and when this fight goes to the mat, expect compelling, high-level positional battles. In this scenario, the younger Lee probably has the strength advantage, but Chiesa’s experience and craftiness makes up for it - and then some.
As we’ve seen in many clashes between takedown-oriented fighters, expect a fair amount of time to be devoted to both fighters testing their standup. Lee is definitely the more rudimentary of the two when it comes to striking, but Chiesa’s wild standup is not far ahead.
The funny thing about Chiesa is that he can be surprisingly effective with his chaotic approach, but he cannot completely forsake defense against the 24-year old. Plus, Chiesa’s height advantage - 6’1” to Lee’s 5’9” - gives him some room for error and an edge in clinch battles.
To be honest, though Lee is slightly favored, this feels like a tossup. “The Motown Phenom” does have the benefit of youth and a four fight win streak - stopping his last three opponents. But Chiesa has for years been one of the more undervalued top-10 lightweights - his low-key persona and grappling-based style does not win him many fans.
How You Should Bet
In 16 career fights, Chiesa has zero knockouts. Lee has one TKO in 17 career bouts. While Chiesa has impressive 10 submission finishes in 14 wins, it doesn’t seem likely he will submit a ground specialist like Lee early. The same goes for Lee, who has won by decision in roughly half his bouts.
See where I’m going here? Picking a winner outright is tough, but the 2.5 round over/under for a five-round fight seems like a gift. Both men are durable and skilled enough to make it past the halfway point of the third - and their fighting styles tend to eat up clock. The over is how you want to play this.
UFC odds pick: Over 2.5 rounds -110
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UFC Fight Night 112 takes place on Sunday, June 25, 2017 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK.
