It’s been over a year since Luke Rockhold lost the middleweight belt in a shocking knockout loss to Michael Bisping - one of the biggest upsets of 2016. This Saturday, Rockhold will finally return to the octagon to meet former WSOF two-division champion David Branch in a high stakes divisional matchup.
A win by Rockhold would put his name right back near the top of the title contender list while the whole business with Georges St. Pierre, Bisping and interim titleholder Robert Whittaker gets sorted out.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the matchup and pick out the best betting values.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
David Branch +326
Luke Rockhold -440
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -135, under +115
Fight Preview
Rockhold’s loss to Bisping - a fighter he previously beat - was the ultimate flash knockout. Prior to that, the model was running roughshod through the elite ranks racking up five straight finishes over guys like Chris Weidman, Lyoto Machida, Tim Boetsch and yes, Michael Bisping.
The AKA product is without a doubt one of the best middleweights in the world. Standing 6’3”, Rockhold is a huge 185-pounder that looks like he could easily compete at light heavyweight. He is a natural athlete, flexible and fluid in his movement. Training at a top camp has obviously honed his abilities to elite levels.
The 32-year old is both a dangerous, unorthodox kickboxer and a lethal submission grappler. His takedown defense and counter-wrestling makes him especially effective against wrestlers, as his natural strength lets him effectively lock up opponents in any position.
On the feet, Rockhold’s best weapons are his potent kicks at long range. He throws them as a means of both offense and defense, and in both phases they have the potential to put guys down. His awkward rhythm makes it difficult to time him, and it serves to lull opponents into counters.
Branch is a very strong in his own right, but is far less dynamic than Rockhold. He is somewhat methodical, preferring to wrestle and grind. His all-around game is very meat-and-potatoes - good, solid and unspectacular. There is no MMA phase where Branch is uncomfortable, but he’s not dominant in any either.
It was good enough to be top dog in WSOF, but his disappointing “re-debut” against Krzysztof Jotko - a split decision win - was a sign that he might struggle against better competition.
UFC Betting Tips
Rockhold might have to shake off more than a year of inactivity, but he holds the advantages in just about every area. If he can be knocked out by Bisping, Branch surely has a chance, but consecutive flukes seem highly unlikely. On paper, Rockhold outclasses Branch, which makes this an easy choice. However, the price is a high, so use it as a parlay to pad another bet.
UFC Odds Pick: Parlay Rockhold to win at -440
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UFC Fight Night 116 takes place on Saturday, September 16 at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
