Overlook this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 118 at your own risk. While it’s a Fight Pass card in Gdansk, Poland of all places, any event with Donald Cerrone as a headliner is worth watching. The popular “Cowboy” meets the undefeated Darren Till in what should be a much closer matchup than most people are thinking.
Also on the card is native Pole Karolina Kowalkiewicz, hoping to bounce back from back-to-back losses after starting her career 10-0. Joining her on home soil is Jan Blachowicz, a kickboxer who always seems to end up in a slugfest.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the best picks on the main card.
Main Event
Welterweights
Darren Till +125 vs. Donald Cerrone -155
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -180, under +140
Though Till is still relatively unknown outside hardcore circles, savvy oddsmakers have installed him as only a slight underdog against the much more popular Cerrone. On top of that, Till isn’t even ranked while Cerrone is currently the No. 6 fighter at 170.
While Cowboy’s accomplishments far outshines Till’s, this is a tough style matchup for him. Cerrone can be picked apart by elite strikers and he’s vulnerable to power shots - as proven by Robbie Lawler, Jorge Masvidal and Rafael dos Anjos. Obviously, those are all elite welterweights, but Till is an advanced striker with 9 KOs in 15 career wins.
UFC Betting Tips
While Till undoubtedly has a bright future, Cerrone is probably too experienced for him. If Cowboy ends up getting tuned up on the feet, he has an underrated wrestling game to fall back on. The price on Cerrone is playable.
UFC Odds Pick: Cerrone to win at -155
Women’s Strawweights
Jodie Esquibel +350
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -455
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -275, under +225
This is undoubtedly a bounceback fight for Kowalkiewicz, and the odds reflect that. It’s not that Esquibel is a tin can, but the former TUF 23 competitor doesn’t project to be anything more than a mid-tier strawweight. Still, despite Kowalkiewicz’s lofty ranking, the Pole is hardly a dominant fighter - she doesn’t possess knockdown power nor is she particularly athletic. Instead KK tends to gut out decisions with her cardio, durability and scrappiness.
UFC Betting Tips
Wanna gamble? Lay a small bet on Esquibel - who could absolutely make this a close, ugly fight. If you want to play it safe, the rounds over is the right call, as neither woman really finishes fights early.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -255
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz +120 vs. Devin Clark -150
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -175, under +155
Blachowicz is a big, lumbering fighter with solid technical kickboxing. While he should have the on-paper advantage on the feet, his lack of cardio and paltry 50% takedown defense is going to haunt him in this fight. Clark isn’t a polished striker, but he is a very good athlete who knows how to wrestle. While he might not be able to take Blachowicz down right away, he should be able to wear down the Pole and control his way to a win.
UFC Betting Tips
Clark showed in his last fight against Jake Collier that he can commit to wrestling for three rounds to break down an opponent. He’s likely to take the same path here. The price on Clark isn’t ideal, but it’s affordable enough to play.
Middlweight
Jonathan Wilson +155 vs. Oskar Piechota -195
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -125, under -105
Piechota makes his UFC debut as a hometown here - he’s from the city of Gdansk. He’s a solid prospect for the weight class, with all nine of his wins coming by way of finish. However, his record has been built up on small promotions against a handful of .500 fighters. Wilson is dropping down from 205 after consecutive losses, and he is an explosive striker with knockout power.
UFC Betting Tips
While we usually fade fighters making UFC debuts, Piechota’s ceiling appears to be much higher than Wilson’s. We wouldn’t blame you for staying away from this fight, though.
UFC Odds Pick: Piechota to win at -195
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.
UFC Fight Night 118 takes place on Saturday, October 21, 2017 at the Ergo Arena in Gdansk, Poland. The entire card airs live on UFC Fight Pass starting 3 p.m. ET.
