Dustin Poirier has quietly become one of the UFC’s most consistently exciting fighters. He’s athletic and fights emotional, with enough skill to maintain a top-10 ranking, but not enough to really dominate any of his fellow contenders. While he might not ever challenge for a title, he’s done enough to earn big name fights against guys like Eddie Alvarez, Michael Johnson and even Conor McGregor.
This Saturday, the 28-year old meets former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, who is coming off his first win at 155 pounds in years. A win over the No. 8 Poirier could signal a resurgence for “Showtime”.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the matchup form a betting perspective.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dustin Poirier -105
Anthony Pettis -125
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -105
Fight Preview
This should be a compelling striking match between two athletic fighters, and there are a number of subtle differences that make it so: Poirier is the harder puncher of the two, while Pettis is the more powerful kicker. Poirier is most comfortable when he is moving forward, Pettis’ best work comes when he is sniping from the outside.
When it comes to taking damage, both men have shown that they can be overwhelmed by power shots. Poirier has been knocked out twice in the first round, and while Pettis has never been finished in an opening frame, he’s taken a lot more damage in recent fights. Still, their durability can be considered strengths.
Where Poirier will have the advantage is in his wrestling. He showed that he could win with a takedown-heavy approach in an upset of Joe Duffy last year. Pettis is far more difficult to takedown, but Eddie Alvarez and Rafael dos Anjos showed that a commitment to wrestling can soften him up.
If the fight stays standing, Pettis’ dynamic kickboxing gives him a slight edge on the feet. While Poirier is a good striker, his aggression naturally leads to holes in his standup that a sniper like Pettis can take advantage of. Maintaining the distance to launch his kicks will be key for Showtime.
UFC Betting Tips
While this is a dangerous matchup for both men, Poirier has a clearer path to victory that was laid out by Alvarez: stifle Pettis by pressing him into the fence and taking him down. While it might not be pretty, it’s a plan that Showtime simply has not found a solution for. There was a time where Poirier would try to outbrawl everyone, but he’s an established vet as this stage of his career who should have no problems following a gameplan. Lay the price on Poirier to win.
UFC Odds Pick: Poirier to win at -105
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UFC Fight Night 120 takes place on Saturday, November 11, 2017 at the TED Constant Convocation Center in Norfolk, Virginia. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 9 p.m. ET.
