There’s a lot to love about this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 120 in Virginia. In the main event, the always-exciting Dustin Poirier meets the one-and-only “Showtime” Pettis in a pivotal lightweight affair. Two all-out brawlers in Matt Brown and Diego Sanchez could likely earn Fight of the Year candidacy. Andrei Arlovski will look to fight off Father Time along with Nate Marquardt in what could be sendoff scraps for respected longtime vets.
While there are no immediate title implications at stake, there’s plenty to keep your eyes on here. Today, we’re taking a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, breaking down key matchups and dishing out sage betting advice. Let’s dive in.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Main Event, Lightweight
Dustin Poirier - 105
Anthony Pettis - 125
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over - 115, under - 105
Brief Betting Breakdown
This is an extremely competitive matchup where Pettis is just barely a favorite. To be honest, you could switch the money lines and nobody would blink an eye. But we’re leaning Poirier here because he’s got the ability to wrestle. Rafael dos Anjos and Eddie Alvarez both exposed “Showtime’s” vulnerability to the wrestling long game and Poirier could follow suit.
Against Joe Duffy, “The Diamond” surprised everybody by going with a takedown-heavy approach against a boxer and it worked perfectly. That shows that 1. Poirier can grind and 2. his coaching staff is excellent at picking apart his opponents.
Of course, with a finisher as electric as Pettis, there’s always the risk that he pulls off some crazy submission or TKO, but Poirier is generally pretty durable.
UFC Odds Pick: Poirier to win at - 105
Welterweight
Matt Brown - 356
Diego Sanchez + 276
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over + 130, under - 150
Brief Betting Breakdown
This is a tough call since Diego Sanchez and Matt Brown could go full Rock’Em Sock’Em Robots at any minute and swing until somebody goes down. But let’s assume that they both fight intelligently for most of the bout. We like the price on Diego Sanchez because he’s an excellent submission wrestler facing a guy who can be taken down - Matt Brown also has 10 submission losses over his career.
Our suggestion here would be to probably just sit back and enjoy the oncoming bloodbath. But the money line on Sanchez is to tempting to pass up. Unless the oddsmakers have some inside info about some mystery injury, it’s hard to see why “The Nightmare” is such a big underdog.
UFC Odds Pick: Sanchez to win at + 276
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski + 280
Junior Albini - 340
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over + 140, under - 160
Brief Betting Breakdown
You cannot trust Arlovski’s chin whatsoever. While Albini is no Francis Ngannou, he is a solid kickboxer that can hit with power. The Brazilian is also a fast starter, with 11 of his 14 wins coming in the first round. That’s really not a good sign for “The Pitbull” who can be overwhelmed early by guys who don’t respect his hands. And right now, everybody is walking through his punches to plant one on his beard.
Lay the price on Albini to get the win. The rounds over seems playable here as well. It goes against what we said about Junior getting fast finishes, but Arlovski was able to go to the cards in his last fight against Tybura. The payout is worth a small bet.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 1.5 rounds at + 140
Middleweight
Nate Marquardt + 225
Cezar Ferreira - 285
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over - 200, under + 170
Brief Betting Breakdown
Like Arlovski, Marquardt has been around forever and has taken a ton of damage up to this point in his career. While Nate still can take some punches, the reality here is that he’s facing a bigger, younger, more athletic fighter. Expect Ferreira to exploit Marquardt’s diminishing strength by pressing him into the cage, taking him down and controlling him on the ground.
The fight script looks like it’ll lead to lengthy ground and clinch exchanges. If you want to protect yourself from an upset, take the rounds over. Both guys are experienced enough to grind this out to the end.
UFC Odds Pick: Ferreira to win at - 285
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
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UFC Fight Night 120 takes place on Saturday, November 11, 2017 at the TED Constant Convocation Center in Norfolk, Virginia. The main card airs live on FS1 starting 9 p.m. ET.
