Daniel Kelly’s unlikely winning streak came to a crushing end at the hands of Derek Brunson, but the popular Australian fighter will get a chance to bounce back at home when he meets Elias Theodorou this Saturday.
The 39-year old has become a cult hero of sorts in his native country, due to his ability to overcome both his age and dadbod to beat fighters that look like they should be taking his lunch. His matchup at UFC Fight Night 121 is no different, as Kelly meets an athletic fighter 10 years his junior.
Can Kelly pull off another upset? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the matchup, along with your best betting options.
UFC Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Daniel Kelly +212
Elias Theodorou -262
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -290, under +245
Fight Preview
Theodorou’s best asset is his athleticism, though sometimes he uses it as a crutch. He loves kicking at range, preferring to keep himself of harm’s way and piling up points. His hands, however, has not caught up to his legs, and the Canadian is vulnerable against experienced boxers.
Using his speed and quickness will be key for Theodorou, as the slower Kelly will have trouble chasing him down. Against Sam Alvey, Theodorou was able to maintain the distance with his kicks, and it worked perfectly against a fighter who was trying to close the distance. And because Kelly doesn’t possess knockout power, Theodorou can afford to put a little bit more into his strikes.
If Kelly can get inside, this fight takes on a whole new complexion. A skilled judo player, Kelly is particularly good with crafty trips and throws. However, the Australian’s best weapon might be his pressure and pace. Against Antonio Carlos Jr. and Rashad Evans, Kelly stayed close enough to make his opponents uncomfortable, throwing just enough strikes and takedown attempts to take them out of rhythm.
UFC Betting Predictions
It’s hard to bet on a fighter like Kelly, who is old, creaky and spectacularly fails the eyeball test as a fighter. But this just seems like one of those fights he can pull of. While Theodorou is younger and far more athletic, he lacks the explosive knockout power and multi-layered striking to put away Kelly.
Expect three hard-fought rounds and close, hard-fought decision. Kelly’s current price is tempting enough to warrant a small play, but just be aware that it’s a big risk.
UFC Odds Pick: Kelly to win at +212
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UFC Fight Night 121 on Saturday, November 18, 2017 at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
