UFC Fight Night 121 takes place on Saturday, November 18, 2017 at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Heavyweights Fabricio Werdum and Marcin Tybura will clash in the main event. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET. Get latest UFC odds, previews, predictions and picks at BookMaker.eu now!
The Australia/New Zealand region consistently gets good UFC events, from marquee pay-per-views to solid Fight Night cards. Credit a strong fan base, plenty of native stars and a general appetite for the spot in Oceania. This Saturday, another solid night of fights goes down in Sydney, Australia - with former heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum anchoring the night.
Werdum is hunting for another title shot, but he’ll have to go through rising contender Marcin Tybura. It’s a high risk, low reward scrap for the Brazilian, as Tybura is unknown yet dangerous. In a women’s flyweight tilt, Bec Rawlings will look to win on home soil against No. 13 JoJo Calderwood in a fight that projects to be a fun kickboxing battle.
Also on the card is the always exciting Tim Means, who meets polished kickboxer Belal Muhammad. Local cult hero Daniel Kelly squares off against Canada’s Elias Theodorou, and Kelly has certainly produced magical upsets at home in the past.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the night’s key matchups with your betting options in mind.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Main Event, Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum -355
Marcin Tybura +275
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -105
Betting Breakdown
Tybura has got the tools to be a future contender, but does he have championship skills? That’s the question here, as Werdum is just a year removed from holding the title. While the younger Tybura is growing as mixed martial artist, there just doesn’t seem to be an area where he’d have an advantage over Werdum.
On the feet, Werdum likely has the edge as a more dynamic striker - this is a man that knocked out Mark Hunt with a flying knee, outstruck Travis Browne and boxed up Cain Velasquez. And if this ends up on the ground, the Brazilian is incomparable in the grappling department.
UFC Betting Tips
There are two solid options here: Werdum to win and Werdum inside the distance. While Tybura is young, tough and durable, Werdum is very good at creating ugly fights that drain his opponents and leave them open for a finish.
UFC Odds Pick: Werdum to win at -355, Werdum inside the distance -110
Welterweight
Tim Means -224
Belal Muhammad +181
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -220, under +180
Betting Breakdown
In a dark horse contender for fight of the night, two excellent kickboxers will likely tee off on each other. Muhammad is the more efficient striker, while Means is more dynamic on the feet. Both men are prone to defensive lapses, but they are generally very durable and recover quickly from big hits.
Let’s give the slight edge to Means on the feet, as he is the taller, rangy striker with 18 KOs in 24 career wins. However, his lack of takedown defense could hurt him against Muhammad, who averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes and finishes at an 83% success rate.
UFC Betting Tips
Tim Means is an underrated fighter, having compiled an impressive 12-5 UFC record. Over that time, he’s consistently beaten middle class fighters like Belal Muhammad. While Muhammad’s wrestling is something to worry about, Means activity and spirit should carry him to victory.
UFC Odds Pick: Means to win at -224
Middleweight
Daniel Kelly +205
Elias Theodorou -260
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -340, under +280
Betting Breakdown
At 39 years old, Kelly will always be fighting guys that are younger and more athletic than him. However, he finds ways to win more often than not, earning the dadbod fighter a cult hero status in his native Australia. His fairytale run came crashing to an end at the hands of Derek Brunson, but Theodorou is a much more manageable opponent.
While Theodorou is a very good athlete, he has yet to develop a style that best takes advantage of his gifts. He likes to fight at range, but Kelly is particularly good at crowding the pocket and making guys uncomfortable. This might play out like a game of cat-and-mouse as Theodorou tries to maintain the distance with his arsenal of kicks.
UFC Betting Tips
It’s always risky laying the price on old, creaky guys like Kelly, but he really elevates his game at home and matches up well with Theodorou. At his current price, Kelly is worth a small bet.
UFC Odds Pick: Kelly to win at +205
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UFC Fight Night 121 on Saturday, November 18, 2017 at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
