Tim “The Dirty Bird” Means is a guy the UFC can always turn to for a good scrap. The lanky welterweight has been gutting out tough fights since 2012, compiling a solid 12-5 record inside the promotion. While he’s consistently fallen short against upper echelon fighters, Means has found his groove as a divisional tough guy that’s always down to bring the thunder.
This Saturday, Means will meet Belal Muhammad, who was once considered a bright prospect at welterweight. Losses to Alan Jouban and Vicente Luque have stopped his momentum, but a recent two-fight win streak suggests that the 29-year old might be ready to fulfill his promise.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the matchup along with your betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tim Means -250
Belal Muhammad +200
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -220, under +180
Fight Preview
Muhammad made his debut as an undefeated striker, and it’s his offensive efficiency that makes him dangerous. He pops a stiff jab, setting up thudding low kicks, slick power punches and nicely timed takedowns. Team Roufusport has always produced good strikers, and Muhammad is no different.
Output is another strength of Muhammad’s, as he lands 4.32 strikes per minute at a 42% clip. However, the stats reveal a defensive problem, as opponents connect nearly as often as he does. For all his striking acumen, Muhammad simply doesn’t defend well.
Means might be the perfect guy to take advantage of the holes in Muhammad’s defense. With a striking output and accuracy rate nearly identical to Muhammad’s, Means is probably the more creative fighter as well. The Dirty Bird is an excellent kickboxer with power to boot - 18 of his 24 career wins have come by way of knockout.
The clinch and takedown battles will be important in this tilt, as the taller Means is extremely dangerous with his Muay Thai clinch. Tall and lanky at 6’2”, Means naturally has lethal knees when he can grab the plum. However, with Muhammad landing nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes with more than 83% success, The Dirty might find himself fighting off his back for much of the tilt.
UFC Betting Predictions
You can give Means a slight advantage on the feet, but Muhammad’s takedowns will likely be the difference. If the Roufusport fighter runs into any trouble, the narrow-framed Means is not all that difficult to takedown and hold down. If that happens, expect Muhammad to control the fight from the top ride en route to a decision win. Best of all, a bet on Muhammad pays out twice what you put at risk.
UFC Odds Pick: Muhammad to win at +200
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UFC Fight Night 121 on Saturday, November 18, 2017 at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The card airs live on FS1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
