Will Brooks is a big favorite to defeat Nik Lentz at UFC Fight Night 121 in Australia. These two were supposed to fight at UFC 216 but the fight was cancelled as Lentz had some health issues. The fight between Brooks and Lentz is one of four on the FS1 portion of the preliminary card, leading up to a six-fight main card featuring Fabricio Werdum taking on Marcin Tybura. UFC Fight Night 121 takes place on Sunday in Australia, but because of the time difference it will be seen on Saturday night in North America on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.
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Will Brooks (18-3, 1-2 UFC)
Brooks was a champion in the lightweight division of Bellator but he hasn’t looked that great in the UFC, losing two of his three fights. He did beat Ross Pearson in his debut, although it wasn’t an impressive win and then Brooks lost to Alex Oliveira and Charles Oliveira. Both of those losses were bad ones, as he was knocked out by Alex and submitted by Charles.
Brooks has five knockout wins in his career and four submission wins. He has three first round finishes.
Nik Lentz (27-8-2, 11-5-1 UFC)
Lentz is an accomplished UFC veteran who has 11 wins in the UFC. He has split his last four fights, losing to Charles Oliveira, beating Danny Castillo and Michael McBride and losing to Islam Makhachev at UFC 208 in February. Lentz had some medical problems before UFC 216 and the fight against Brooks was scrapped. Lentz said that he had “diabetic like” issues that caused him trouble because of his attempt to cut weight.
Lentz has nine knockout wins in his career and seven wins by submission. He has not shown nearly as much ability to finish in recent years and six of his last eight fights have gone to a decision.
UFC Picks
The first thing to note about this fight is that the wiseguys are pounding Brooks like he has already won the fight. Earlier this week the line was -350 and now it is up to -550. Big money moves in the UFC are usually right, so we want to keep that in mind. With that being said, I am really surprised that Brooks is such a big favorite. He has not looked good at all in the UFC and there is nothing he has shown that indicates that he should be a huge favorite. Lentz is a capable UFC veteran who has won a lot of fights. Perhaps the wise guys have noticed that Lentz has looked slower in recent fights and easier to hit or perhaps this is just a really good matchup for Brooks. Whatever the case, the money is coming in heavily on Brooks. If not for the wiseguys pounding Brooks I might have taken a shot with Lentz simply as a price play, but not now. The price on Brooks is definitely too high for me, so I will just take the rounds, which should be set at 2.5, to go over the total.
UFC Fight Night 121 takes place on Sunday, November 19 at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Because of the time difference, it will air on Saturday night in North America. There are six fights on the main card on FS1 featuring Fabricio Werdum vs. Marcin Tybura and seven preliminary bouts, with four on FS1 and three on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (FS1)
Fabricio Werdum -345 vs. Marcin Tybura
Bec Rawlings -160 vs. Jessy Rose-Clark
Tim Means -213 vs. Belal Muhammad
Jake Matthews -150 vs. Bojan Velickovic
Elias Theodorou -263 vs. Dan Kelly
Alexander Volkanovski -604 vs. Shane Young
Preliminary Card (FS1)
Ryan Benoit -278 vs. Ashkan Mokhtarian
Will Brooks -550 vs. Nik Lentz
Adam Wieczorek -160 vs. Anthony Hamilton
Frank Camacho -135 vs. Damien Brown
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Nadia Kassem -171 vs. Alex Chambers
Eric Shelton -350 vs. Jenel Lausa
Tai Tuivasa -175 vs. Rashad Coulter
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