The feature fight on the undercard of UFC Fight Night 123 on Saturday night on FS1 has Alexis Davis taking on Liz Carmouche. It is a huge fight for both women, as they are moving down to the recently created flyweight division. The two fought four years ago and it was Davis winning by unanimous decision. This fight is one of four on the FS1 portion of the preliminary card, leading up to a six-fight main card featuring Cub Swanson vs. Brian Ortega. Let’s take a look at Davis vs. Carmouche, odds and picks.
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Alexis Davis (18-7, 5-2 UFC)
Davis won her first three UFC bouts, but she is just 2-2 since, with wins against Sarah Kaufman and Cindy Dandois, but losses to Ronda Rousey and Sara McMann. Davis will be fighting against Carmouche for the second time and Davis said to RealSport that she expects a “war.” Davis said that the move from bantamweight to flyweight is a good one for her. She said that “flyweight is a better fit.” The flyweight division definitely looks to be wide open, as the current champion is Nicco Montano.
Davis has been a pro since 2007 and she has eight wins by submission and two by knockout. Five of her last eight fights have gone the distance.
Liz Carmouche (11-5, 3-3 UFC)
Carmouche has yet to prove she can beat the best fighters, as she lost Rousey, Miesha Tate and Davis. Her three wins in the UFC were against Jessica Andrade, Lauren Murphy and Katlyn Chookagian. The lack of action is also a concern with Carmouche, as she has not fought in a year.
Carmouche was a finisher early in her career but her last four fights have gone to a decision.
UFC Picks
Davis has looked really good at times but like Carmouche, she has struggled against top opponents. Davis did submit Sarah Kaufman in April of 2015 but then she was out of action for more than a year, as she had a son. She lost in her return to Sara McMann but she did bounce back to beat Cindy Dandois in April. Davis has proven to be a balanced fighter, while Carmouche would prefer this fight to be decided on the mat. And that is the big question in this fight. Will Carmouche be able to consistently get takedowns against Davis? If she does, then Carmouche has the ability to ground and pound and get the win over Davis. The problem I have in taking Carmouche is that I don’t know that she can keep this fight on the mat. I lean toward taking Davis at plus money in this fight.
I think there is probably more value on the total in this fight. I expect the oddsmakers to make it 2.5 with the over favored. Neither of these two fighters has shown a great ability to finish lately and keep in mind that they went to a decision the first time they faced each other four years ago. I will take the rounds to go over the total.
UFC Fight Night 123 takes place on Saturday, December 9 at the Save Mart Center in Fresno, California. There are six fights on the main card featuring Cub Swanson vs. Brian Ortega and eight preliminary bouts, with four on FS1 and three on UFC Fight Pass.
UFC Fight Night 123
Main Card (FS1)
Cub Swanson -118 vs. Brian Ortega
Jason Knight -290 vs. Gabriel Benitez
Marlon Moraes -165 vs. Aljamain Sterling
Scott Holtzman -116 vs. Darrell Horcher
Eryk Anders -276 vs. Markus Perez
Benito Lopez -120 vs. Albert Morales
Preliminary Card (FS1)
Liz Carmouche -180 vs. Alexis Davis
Luke Sanders -250 vs. Andre Soukhamthath
Alex Perez -250 vs. Carls John de Tomas
Merab Dvalishvili -175 vs. Frankie Saenz
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Davi Ramos -355 vs. Chris Gruetzemacher
Iuri Alcantara -215 vs. Alejandro Perez
Trevin Giles -250 vs. Antonio Braga Neto
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