Rising lightweight Michel Prazeres (23-2, 1 KO, 10 SUBs) will meet Desmond Green (20-6, 5 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet at UFC Fight Night 125 on Saturday, February 3, 2018 at the Guilherme Paraense Arena in Belem, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1. Bet on the latest UFC odds and get the latest previews, predictions and picks at BookMaker.eu now!
Michel Prazeres is one of those fighters that shows you just how crazy stacked the lightweight division is. The Brazilian sports a 23-2 record and has won five straight - and still nobody knows who he is. At 36 years old, he realistically has one chance to fight his way to a top-15 ranking, and he could establish the case to meet a ranked opponent should he emerge victorious this Saturday in a matchup with Desmond Green.
At 28 years old, Green is already a veteran journeyman, with stints in Bellator and the respected Titan Fighting Championships. The New Yorker comes into the bout looking to rebound from a decision loss to Rustam Khabilov.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the matchup and go over your best betting option.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michel Prazeres -160
Desmond Green +130
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -230, under -150
Matchup Breakdown
Green took a huge step forward in his UFC debut, using slick footwork and a crisp jab to control Josh Emmett from distance. Towards the end of the fight, he used his wrestling on a tired opponent to add another layer to his game. In just over five years of professional fighting, Green has come a long way - and he still is not yet 30.
His last loss to Rustam Khabilov was a close one, and it’s a scrap that could have gone either way. Green was taken down a few times in the first but managed to tighten his defense to a point where a good grappler couldn’t get him to the mat. His athleticism allowed him to land a few solid shots, and his cardio and strength even allowed him to get the takedown.
It’s clear that Green is a well-rounded, if not particularly lethal fighter. Finishes have been elusive, as he’s only stopped six opponents in 26 pro fights. Prazeres has had a little bit more success, with 11 stoppages in 25 wins. The Brazilian is dangerous with his submissions, as one would expect from a stocky, powerful BJJ black belt.
UFC Betting Tips
The key here for Prazeres is to get this fight to the mat, as Green will easily be able to snipe the 5’6” Brazilian from long range. Prazeres averages 4.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, a strong number, but Green’s success against Khabilov gives us some clues as to how that will play out. Prazeres might be able to take him down early, but Green tends to get stronger the longer a fight goes on, and the Brazilian tends to fade.
Expect Green to fight off Prazeres’ takedowns, then take advantage of his 4-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage to batter Prazeres at range. Your best bets are Green to win or the rounds over, as finishes don’t come often for either fighter.
UFC Odds Pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -230
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UFC Fight Night 125 takes place on Saturday, February 3, 2018 at the Guilherme Paraense Arena in Belem, Brazil. The card airs live on FS1.
