Welterweight star Donald Cerrone (32-10, 8 KOs, 16 SUBs) will meet action fighter Yancy Medeiros (15-4, 8 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night 126 on Saturday, February 18, 2018 at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas. The card airs live on FS1 starting 9 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, and get the latest previews, predictions and picks now.
The last time Yancy Medeiros stepped inside the octagon, he gutted out a ridiculously fun 2017 Fight of the Year contender and a win over Alex Oliveira. That thrillride earned the Hawaiian a step up in competition - and another scrap against Donald Cerrone, one of the most consistently entertaining fighters in the business.
While Cerrone isn’t the elite fighter he used to be, “Cowboy” is still one of the most recognizable names in the division. If Medeiros can get past the longtime contender, he gets a serious look as a possible contender. The matchup serves as the main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 126.
So can Cerrone regain his groove and take out a guy that just seems to be hitting his stride? Medeiros is certainly the type of guy that Cowboy would feast on in the past. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Donald Cerrone -147
Yancy Medeiros +117
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -105
Matchup Breakdown
The 34-year old Cerrone is currently enduring the worst stretch of his career, saddled with three straight losses for the first time. While losing to Jorge Masvidal, Robbie Lawler and Darren Till is nothing to be ashamed about, the losses to Gamebred and Till were particularly brutal - Cerrone was outright dominated.
We all know how good Cowboy can be - he’s a fast, dynamic kickboxer with underrated wrestling and expert submission skills. But we’re also starting to see his floor as well. Against Till, he was tentative and gunshy against a larger, creative kickboxer. Masvidal picked him apart with a picture perfect jab. And time and time again, Cerrone’s slow starts have cost him victories.
Medeiros is the type of midcard fighter that Cerrone has feasted on in the past. However, Cerrone has never looked so vulnerable, and Medeiros is seemingly peaking as a fighter. The Hawaiian possesses the typical toughness of island fighters, with a willingness to go out on his shield in every scrap.
His move to 170 has appeared to give him more more energy, which in turn has helped his already excellent recoverability. But during his current three fight win streak, Yancy simply out-toughed Silva and Oliveira after getting rocked. By sheer force of will, he turned those tilts into brawls where he emerged victorious.
Statistically, Cerrone’s striking is more effectively offensively and defensively. They both land just over four strikes per minute, but Cowboy connects at a 48% clip compared to Yancy’s 36%. Yancy absorbs an ungodly 5.19 strikes per minute, while Cerrone eats 4.08. Yancy cannot get sloppy here, as Cerrone is far too experienced to just start winging punches at.
UFC Betting Tips
It’s hard to bet on Cerrone when he’s fared so poorly recently, but Medeiros is not the type of fighter that Cowboy typically struggles against. The Hawaiian doesn’t have Till’s sheer size and athleticism to overwhelm Cowboy, nor does he have Gamebred’s ultra-smooth striking and swag. Plus, Cerrone’s underrated wrestling needs to be factored in as well.
At 34, Cerrone is slowing down, but having beaten similar aggressive fighters like Matt Brown and Patrick Cote should give you an idea on how this fight turns out. The pick is Cerrone to win, and the price is playable as a straight bet.
UFC Odds Pick: Cerrone to win at -145
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UFC Fight Night 126 takes place on Saturday, February 18, 2018 at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas. The card airs live on FS1 starting 9 p.m. ET.
