Joe Duffy - 14-1, 4 KOs, 9 SUBs - has an intriguing claim to fame: the Irishman was the last man to beat superstar Conor McGregor. While he's benefitted greatly from that achievement, Duffy has shown that he has the potential to be a top contender.
He can prove it by beating McGregor's former rival, Dustin Poirier - 18-4, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs.
UFC 195 odds at BookMaker.eu
Joe Duffy -240
Dustin Poirier +190
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -140, under +120
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The UFC odds at BookMaker currently list Duffy as more than a 2-to-1 favorite, and this might seem a bit high at first. But his talent is real, and he has a higher ceiling than Poirier - who is a very good fighter. I'm a bit surprised at the over/under here, but oddsmakers are banking on Duffy's recent power surge to end the fight early.
THE LEAD-IN
Although Poirier is a much more recognizable name, Duffy is the favorite here on the strength of two extremely impressive UFC appearances. In his debut against Jake Lindsey this past March, he KO'd Jake Lindsey with a single body punch. He followed up that win with a sensational triangle choke submission against Ivan Jorge this past June.
Prior to the UFC, Duffy fought primarily for Europe's Cage Warriors Fighting Championship, where he notched his now famous win over Conor McGregor. That was by far the biggest win on his resume, which is filled with guys from regional promotions.
Poirier, 26, is already a 13-fight UFC veteran who broke into the top-10 at both featherweight and lightweight. Since leaving the 145-pound class after losing two McGregor in September 2014, Poirier has picked up two quick first-round KO victories over mid-tier lightweights. His only UFC losses have come against top contenders such as The Korean Zombie, Cub Swanson and Conor McGregor.
At stake here is entrance into the lightweight top-10, which is saying a lot given how loaded the division is. For Duffy, beating a commodity like Poirier would be a signature UFC victory. Poirier would be in line for a big name should he derail the considerable hype of the Irishman in a hostile Dublin arena.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND BREAKDOWN
Poirier was once one of the UFC's brightest prospects, but untimely losses to contenders have exposed a few flaws that he has yet to fix. For starters, he's far too easily baited into a brawl. And because he doesn't have good head movement, skilled opponents have been able catch Poirier with huge shots.
But Poirier has some very good things going for him. He's a fantastic puncher with a solid 1-2 that he uses to set powerful combinations. As for his grappling, Poirier has great takedown defense but isn't a particularly adept offensive wrestler. Off his back, he's extremely dangerous with his arsenal of quick chokes and back transitions.
Duffy is a former pro boxer that has the potential to be an elite striker at 155. The Irishman has a stinging jab, fantastic head movement and throws body shots better than nearly anyone else in the division. He's also a complete fighter, with strong takedown defense and a variety of creative trips and throws. On the mat, he transitions seamlessly to mount and can brutalize opponents with ground and pound.
While the American is the far more experienced fighter, this is just a bad style matchup for Poirier. His wrestling isn't powerful enough to take Duffy down and control him, and on the feet he'll be far outclassed. When I first saw the odds for this fight, I thought that Poirier was being undervalued, but the more that I think about it, the more I see Duffy punishing him en route to a third-round TKO.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker's live betting platform. UFC 195 takes place Saturday, January 2, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
