Joe Duffy - 14-1, 4 KOs, 9 SUBs - has an intriguing claim to fame: the Irishman was the last man to beat superstar Conor McGregor. While he’s benefitted greatly from that achievement, Duffy has shown that he has the potential to be a top contender. He can prove it by beating McGregor’s former rival, Dustin Poirier - 18-4, 9 KOs, 6 SUBs.
CURRENT ODDS
Our UFC Fight Night 76 odds currently list Duffy as more than a 2-to-1 favorite, with a -240 moneyline. Poirier is listed right at +200. In this five-round main event, the total is set at 1.5 rounds, with the over at -135 and the under at +115. Prop bets are usually released on the morning of fight night, with live betting available after each fight starts.
THE LEAD-IN
Although Poirier is a much more recognizable name, Duffy is the favorite here on the strength of two extremely impressive UFC appearances. In his debut against Jake Lindsey this past March, he KO’d Jake Lindsey with a single body punch. He followed up that win with a sensational triangle choke submission against Ivan Jorge this past June.
Prior to the UFC, Duffy fought primarily for Europe’s Cage Warriors Fighting Championship, where he notched his now famous win over Conor McGregor. That was by far the biggest win on his resume, which is filled with guys from regional promotions.
Poirier, 26, is already a 13-fight UFC veteran who broke into the top-10 at both featherweight and lightweight. Since leaving the 145-pound class after losing two McGregor in September 2014, Poirier has picked up two quick first-round KO victories over mid-tier lightweights. His only UFC losses have come against top contenders such as The Korean Zombie, Cub Swanson and Conor McGregor.
At stake here is entrance into the lightweight top-10, which is saying a lot given how loaded the division is. For Duffy, beating a commodity like Poirier would be a signature UFC victory. Poirier would be in line for a big name should he derail the considerable hype of the Irishman in a hostile Dublin arena.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND BREAKDOWN
Poirier was once one of the UFC’s brightest prospects, but untimely losses to contenders have exposed a few flaws that he has yet to fix. For starters, he’s far too easily baited into a brawl. And because he doesn’t have good head movement, skilled opponents have been able catch Poirier with huge shots.
But Poirier has some very good things going for him. He’s a fantastic puncher with a solid 1-2 that he uses to set powerful combinations. As for his grappling, Poirier has great takedown defense but isn’t a particularly adept offensive wrestler. Off his back, he’s extremely dangerous with his arsenal of quick chokes and back transitions.
Duffy is a former pro boxer that has the potential to be an elite striker at 155. The Irishman has a stinging jab, fantastic head movement and throws body shots better than nearly anyone else in the division. He’s also a complete fighter, with strong takedown defense and a variety of creative trips and throws. On the mat, he transitions seamlessly to mount and can brutalize opponents with ground and pound.
While the American is the far more experienced fighter, this is just a bad style matchup for Poirier. His wrestling isn’t powerful enough to take Duffy down and control him, and on the feet he’ll be far outclassed. When I first saw the odds for this fight, I thought that Poirier was being undervalued, but the more that I think about it, the more I see Duffy punishing him en route to a third-round TKO.
HOW TO BET
Sign in to get the latest Duffy vs. Poirier odds. BookMaker Sportsbook offers daily updates to moneylines, totals, prop bets and more, so make sure to lock in your bets should you find a favorable wager. The bout takes place at UFC Fight Night 76 on Saturday, October 24, 2015 at the 3Arena in Dublin, Ireland. The entire card is expected to stream on UFC Fight Pass.
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