This Saturday, two UFC hall-of-famers, Dan Henderson and Vitor Belfort, will meet for the third time to close out a series that’s currently tied at one win apiece. And while there is almost zero title implications in the bout, it’s a matchup that should draw plenty of interest. Let’s break down the fight and make a prediction based on our current odds.
CURRENT ODDS
Our online UFC odds currently list Belfort as a big favorite, with a -355 money line. This is a sizeable shift from his opening line at -300, indicating that action is coming in heavy on the Brazilian. Henderson is nearly a 3-to-1 underdog at +275, down from his opening line at +240. The round total has been set at 1.5 rounds, with the over at +100 and the under at -120. Make sure to check out the prop bets, like whether the fight goes to decision, Belfort winning inside the distance or Henderson winning by decision.
FIGHT ANALYSIS
The 38-year old Belfort remains one of the most dangerous strikers in the game despite his advanced age. It’s amazing how he’s retained his athleticism and explosiveness as he inches closer to 40. What’s more, he hasn’t seemed to have lost any of his unreal hand speed and plus power.
A southpaw, the Brazilian operates from the outside, pawing with single punches and pouncing with counter flurries. Where he’s most dangerous is exchanges in the pocket, as his blinding combinations can turn off the lights in the blink of an eye. We’ve seen him flash more potent kicks lately, with his spinning heel kick TKO over Luke Rokchold showing how dangerous his feet can be.
Defensively, Belfort is sound and smooth, with good head movement, solid blocking and great footwork to move outside of range. On the mat, he’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with active hips and quick submission attempts, but he hasn’t had the opportunity to showcase his grappling skills as much recently.
Against Henderson, he probably won’t need them. Although the American is a former Greco-Roman Olympian, at 44 he no longer has the strength to take opponents to the ground. Never a quick fighter to begin with, Henderson has looked like molasses as of late, which is a big reason he’s just 2-5 in his past seven.
What’s more, his legendary chin appears to be permanently cracked, as he’s been dropped five times in his past five fights. It’s a real weakness that opponents can knowingly target, and his lack of agility make him a slow-moving target.
Where Henderson is still good is at close range, where he’s got a diverse array of punches and knees. He’s particularly sneaky at landing hard shots when opponents break clinches. And he still has ridiculous power in that legendary right hand.
However, there’s just too many ways for Belfort to win. The Brazilian is faster, stronger and a more technically skilled striker, which is bad news for a guy with no offensive wrestling. Also, while Belfort has never been known to be a good wrestler, he could still probably take advantage of Henderson’s shockingly bad takedown defense. And when Hendo’s on his back, all he does is cling to his opponents in hopes of a standup.
Headlining a card in Rio de Janeiro in front of his countrymen, I’d expect Belfort to be fired up in search of a crowd-pleasing stoppage. The pick is Belfort to win by TKO in the second.
FINDING THE BEST BETTING VALUES
Belfort should handily win this fight, and I expect that -355 money line to get even more expensive come fight night. The 1.5 over/under is a bit dicey, as it’s not much of a window for the Brazilian to get going. A better play might be “Belfort wins inside the distance”, which stands at -245.
HOW TO BET
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